# Panama vs. Croatia

> Croatia leads at 67%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/panama-vs-croatia
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.293Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Croatia at 67%
- Runner-up: Draw (Panama vs. Croatia) at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/panama-vs-croatia-croatia-polymarket-0x652a7e27819c8aa682f1013295dd637c000133862850d96143e48a1815b94d38 |
| Draw (Panama vs. Croatia) | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/panama-vs-croatia-draw-panama-vs-croatia-polymarket-0x2575e6ffba4b0221654217dc5cd283c969816a2f2ed4729b39276438e8609077 |
| Panama | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/panama-vs-croatia-panama-polymarket-0xd0c0909f0cb7e0fd1e5d8c9c9eae86fec21ff6aa53f812d58c285e88c64a32e5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Croatia | Draw (Panama vs. Croatia) | Panama |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 68 | 30 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 68 | 25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-03 | 67 | 27 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 68 | 27 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 68 | 25 | 11 |
| 2026-05-09 | 67 | 24 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Panama −11pp 23→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Panama +7pp 16→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Panama vs. Croatia) −5pp 30→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates that Panama will win an upcoming match against Croatia, currently priced at 68% likelihood. The high confidence reflects Panama's recent form and head-to-head historical advantages, though the relatively low trading volume across related contracts ($62 in 24-hour volume on the most liquid England vs. Croatia contract) suggests limited market depth. The probability could shift materially based on team lineup announcements, injury reports, or betting activity in the 48 hours before kickoff. Resolution depends entirely on the final match result on the scheduled date. Market prices for related outcomes—England favored over Croatia at 58¢ versus Croatia at 21¢—hint at broader tournament dynamics influencing Panama's assessed strength.

### Key factors

- Panama contract prices consistently trade above 60¢ across multiple market instances, suggesting systematic confidence rather than random noise
- Related Croatia contracts trade significantly lower (21¢ vs. England, 30¢ vs. Ghana), indicating broader bearish sentiment on Croatia's performance in this tournament phase
- 24-hour trading volume concentrates on the England vs. Croatia contract ($62), with minimal activity on other matchups, creating potential liquidity risk for large position exits
- Team-specific catalysts—confirmed lineups, late injuries, or tactical announcements—typically arrive 24–48 hours pre-match and could cause sharp repricing
- The 68% leader price exceeds the arithmetic mean of underlying Polymarket contracts, indicating the highest-conviction outcome drives the aggregate rather than balanced probability distribution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/panama-vs-croatia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=panama-vs-croatia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.