# Panama vs. England

> England leads at 67%, runner-up 23% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/panama-vs-england
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.724Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: England at 67%
- Runner-up: Draw (Panama vs. England) at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 67¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/panama-vs-england-england-polymarket-0x7a582647d279d70223a8cfce98451ef6ecbe2e574f24b7dda17be7f65b387c20 |
| Draw (Panama vs. England) | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/panama-vs-england-draw-panama-vs-england-polymarket-0x099d12093a6214e2dea67296c11dad775d0b3038c413731112a1c52ebd362adc |
| Panama | 14¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/panama-vs-england-panama-polymarket-0xb53a439c60d979f1c19108b263d97419e0a6ea99eb71ce08cfc0e459622e71cc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | England | Draw (Panama vs. England) | Panama |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 25 | 30 |
| 2026-05-01 | 69 | 27 | 27 |
| 2026-05-02 | 69 | — | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 73 | 24 | 24 |
| 2026-05-07 | 72 | 25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 | 25 | 16 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · England +7pp 69→76¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Panama −5pp 24→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Panama vs. England) −3pp 27→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · England −3pp 76→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Panama −3pp 19→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects that England is favored to win an upcoming match against Panama, with a 76% implied probability compared to Panama's lower likelihood. The high confidence in England likely reflects historical performance gaps between the teams, international ranking differences, and recent form. Key drivers include team composition and injuries ahead of match day, recent head-to-head results if available, and tactical adjustments either side might deploy. The match result itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty, with the outcome dependent on actual field performance rather than pre-match assessments. Contract pricing across platforms shows some variance, suggesting underlying uncertainty despite England's apparent edge.

### Key factors

- England's FIFA ranking and historical performance record against Panama-tier opponents
- Recent injury status and squad availability for both teams within 48 hours of match day
- Home vs. away venue designation and associated historical win rates for the competing nations
- Volume-weighted average pricing across Polymarket and Kalshi contracts ($135+ combined 24h volume) reflects liquidity and confidence level
- Discrepancy between platform prices (Polymarket implicit ~57% vs. Kalshi's 65% for England) suggests cross-platform disagreement on true probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/panama-vs-england
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=panama-vs-england

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.