# Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/panamaweekly
Updated: 2026-08-19T14:20:59.230Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-25

## Headline

- Leader: Above 175 at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 200 at 73%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 175 | 94¢ | +60pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-175-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxpanamaweekly-26aug23-t175 |
| Above 200 | 73¢ | +44pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-200-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxpanamaweekly-26aug23-t200 |
| Above 225 | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-225-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxpanamaweekly-26aug23-t225 |
| Above 250 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-250-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxpanamaweekly-26aug23-t250 |
| Above 275 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-275-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxpanamaweekly-26aug23-t275 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 175 | Above 200 | Above 225 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 34 | 29 | 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | 94 | 73 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-18 · Above 175 +60pp 34→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 200 +44pp 29→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 91% probability that the Panama Canal will record more than 175 transit calls during the week of July 27–August 2, 2026. The high confidence suggests market participants expect normal-to-elevated Canal traffic during this period, though the steep probability drop at higher thresholds (19% for 225+ transits, 6% for 250+) indicates uncertainty about whether traffic will spike significantly. Canal transits are driven by global shipping demand, vessel scheduling, and any operational constraints at the Canal itself. The resolution will occur when the Panama Canal Authority publishes official transit data for the specified week, confirming the exact number of transits. Key uncertainties include seasonal shipping patterns, whether any maintenance closures occur, and broader economic shipping trends in late July 2026.

### Key factors

- Historical weekly transit averages typically range 35–40 per day (245–280 per week), suggesting the 175-transit threshold is well below recent norms but above crisis-level lows
- The sharp probability gradient across thresholds (91% → 65% → 19% → 6%) indicates market consensus clusters around 175–225 transits rather than extreme outcomes
- Panama Canal Authority publishes official transit counts weekly; this contract resolves against published data, making it verifiable and eliminating interpretation risk
- Any unscheduled maintenance, drought reducing water levels, or major geopolitical disruption could suppress transit volume significantly below historical averages
- Seasonal patterns in Q3 (late summer) and upcoming published data for the week of July 27–August 2 will provide the factual basis for resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/panamaweekly
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=panamaweekly

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.