# Paraguay vs. Australia

> Paraguay leads at 41%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/paraguay-vs-australia
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:27.803Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-26

## Headline

- Leader: Paraguay at 41%
- Runner-up: Australia at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 41¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/paraguay-vs-australia-paraguay-polymarket-0x75d91cd268cec8d688b8a7e543b149700bf45d9f62e9fffa479b18f19a60a63e |
| Australia | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/paraguay-vs-australia-australia-polymarket-0x65d30f3d41bbab278c2108ab0883d7ae1a9fac97a2086542a975d885a9c72dba |
| Draw (Paraguay vs. Australia) | 35¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/paraguay-vs-australia-draw-paraguay-vs-australia-polymarket-0x73cdf481e0d213e3ad3b2c096ad9dfea604b6587900419d0a214aac966c68988 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Paraguay | Australia | Draw (Paraguay vs. Australia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-06 | 43 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 37 | 35 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | 35 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Paraguay −6pp 43→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Paraguay +4pp 37→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Paraguay vs. Australia) −3pp 35→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Paraguay will finish with the best record in their group stage, currently priced at 40% likelihood. The pricing suggests Paraguay holds a slight edge over Australia (at 34%), with both teams viewed as competitive but uncertain. Key drivers include recent team form, head-to-head matchup dynamics, and strength of schedule against other group opponents. Markets are actively pricing these outcomes based on available fixture information and recent performance data. The actual resolution will depend on match results across the group stage, where goal differential and direct competition outcomes will ultimately determine final standings.

### Key factors

- Paraguay currently trades 6 percentage points higher than Australia in the aggregated market price, indicating analysts view them as slight favorites
- United States vs. Paraguay contracts show 49¢ pricing, suggesting Paraguay faces a stronger-ranked competitor in their matchup
- Low trading volume on some contracts ($0-28 24h vol) indicates thin liquidity in secondary markets, which can amplify price movements on new information
- Australia vs. Türkiye pricing (54¢ for Türkiye) suggests Australia may face a difficult matchup, potentially affecting their group stage position
- All three contracts represent multi-outcome scenarios where group stage performance and points accumulation will determine the actual winner

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/paraguay-vs-australia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=paraguay-vs-australia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.