# Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before May 1, 2026

> 0 leads at 53%, runner-up 5% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pardonstrump
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.648Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: 0 at 53%
- Runner-up: 3 to 9 at 5%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $58

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-exactly-0-people-before-j-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-0 |
| 3 to 9 | 5¢ | −1pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-between-3-and-9-people-be-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-6 |
| 10 to 14 | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-between-10-and-14-people-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-12 |
| 15 to 19 | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-between-15-and-19-people-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-17 |
| 1 | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-exactly-1-people-before-j-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-1 |
| 2 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-exactly-2-people-before-j-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-2 |
| 20 to 24 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-between-20-and-24-people-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-22 |
| Above 24 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-pardon-above-24-people-before-ju-kalshi-kxpardonstrump-26may-24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 | 3 to 9 | 10 to 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 | 5 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 | 5 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 53 | 6 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 52 | 5 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · 0 +8pp 45→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 1 −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pardonstrump
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pardonstrump
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.