# Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027

> 100 to 499 leads at 24%, runner-up 24% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pardonsyear
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.600Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 100 to 499 at 24%
- Runner-up: 500 to 999 at 24%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 to 499 | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-pardon-between-100-and-499-people-befor-kalshi-kxpardonsyear-26dec-299 |
| 500 to 999 | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-pardon-between-500-and-999-people-befor-kalshi-kxpardonsyear-26dec-749 |
| 1000 or more | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-pardon-above-999-people-before-jan-1-20-kalshi-kxpardonsyear-26dec-999 |
| 50 to 99 | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-pardon-between-50-and-99-people-before-kalshi-kxpardonsyear-26dec-74 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 100 to 499 | 500 to 999 | 1000 or more |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-04-16 | — | — | 18 |
| 2026-04-17 | — | — | 13 |
| 2026-04-18 | 24 | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | — | 22 | 14 |
| 2026-05-06 | 23 | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | — | — | 13 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · 50 to 99 −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 24% chance that Trump will issue between 50 and 99 pardons before the end of 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about both the scale of clemency actions and timing before year-end. Several factors influence the current level: Trump's historical clemency patterns from his first term (when he issued 143 total pardons, though concentrated in the final weeks), his current legal situation and political leverage, and the calendar constraint of only seven months remaining. The single biggest catalyst will be any actual pardon announcements Trump makes, which would either validate the baseline expectations or shift market perception. Each pardon issued moves traders closer to resolution, while mid-year silence could gradually compress probability downward as the window tightens.

### Key factors

- Trump's first term issued 143 total pardons, with most concentrated in the final weeks, establishing a precedent for concentrated clemency activity
- The remaining time horizon (7 months) creates pressure—if significant pardons haven't materialized by fall 2026, the 50-99 outcome becomes less likely
- Any actual pardon announcements will directly move this contract and reveal Trump's clemency intent for the remainder of 2026
- Political circumstances including ongoing legal cases and congressional dynamics may create windows where pardons become strategically useful or necessary
- Market is currently split across multiple outcome bands (50-99, 100+ ranges at Kalshi), suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus expectation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pardonsyear
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pardonsyear
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.