# Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30 — ↑ $106,000

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 11 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/patek-prices-hit-april-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:55.921Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 22% / Polymarket 25% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $215K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $200 | 4¢ | +1pp | $55K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-200-polymarket-0x5f879a52e5349db7f66d386ca75f1a9bb608fdd6a738a1582681613730b23281 |
| Above 4.460 | 21¢ | −13pp | $48K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4460-above-4460-kalshi-kxaaagasw-26may04-4.460 |
| Above 4.470 | 4¢ | ±0 | $39K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4470-above-4470-kalshi-kxaaagasw-26may04-4.470 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 28¢ | −2pp | $30K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | 13¢ | ±0 | $19K | polymarket | /markets/will-bitcoin-hit-60k-or-80k-first-polymarket-0xecd961f60dad9a8f4f25f717bc6771e09cddf3077657aafc67a6a528c92aad55 |
| ↓ 50,000 | 38¢ | −4pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| Karoline Leavitt | 41¢ | −3pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-karoline-leavitt-leaves-white-house-press-sec-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-klea |
| ↓ 55,000 | 49¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 35,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 48¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 200,000 | 4¢ | −8pp | $299 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-200000-polymarket-0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 41 |
| 2026-04-19 | 42 |
| 2026-04-26 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Above 4.460 +43pp 45→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Above 4.460 +40pp 5→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 4.460 −20pp 88→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 4.460 −13pp 68→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 45,000 −9pp 39→30¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/patek-prices-hit-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=patek-prices-hit-april-30

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.