# Will the combined revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in the April 2026 report be above -100,000ㅤ

> Above -100,000ㅤ leads at 87%, runner-up 64% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/payrollsrev
Updated: 2026-05-08T14:20:37.031Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: Above -100,000ㅤ at 87%
- Runner-up: Above -50,000ㅤ at 64%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -100,000ㅤ | 87¢ | +4pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-combined-revision-to-seasonally-adjusted-kalshi-kxpayrollsrev-26may08-t-100000 |
| Above -50,000ㅤ | 64¢ | +3pp | $756 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-combined-revision-to-seasonally-adjusted-kalshi-kxpayrollsrev-26may08-t-50000 |
| Above 0ㅤ | 36¢ | +3pp | $180 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-combined-revision-to-seasonally-adjusted-kalshi-kxpayrollsrev-26may08-t0 |
| Above 50,000ㅤ | 13¢ | +3pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-combined-revision-to-seasonally-adjusted-kalshi-kxpayrollsrev-26may08-t50000 |
| Above 100,000ㅤ | 8¢ | — | $506 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-combined-revision-to-seasonally-adjusted-kalshi-kxpayrollsrev-26may08-t100000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -100,000ㅤ | Above -50,000ㅤ | Above 0ㅤ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 84 | 67 | 32 |
| 2026-05-07 | 88 | 70 | 35 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Above -100,000ㅤ +4pp 84→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above -50,000ㅤ +3pp 67→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 0ㅤ +3pp 32→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 50,000ㅤ +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/payrollsrev
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=payrollsrev

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.