# Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in September 2026

> Above 0.0% leads at 96%, runner-up 94% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pcecore
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.783Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.0% at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 0.1% at 94%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 96¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-00-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26may-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 94¢ | +2pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-01-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26may-t0.1 |
| Above 0.0% | 91¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-00-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26sep-t0.0 |
| Above 0.0% | 90¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-00-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26nov-t0.0 |
| Above 0.0% | 90¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-00-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26oct-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 76¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-01-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26sep-t0.1 |
| Above 0.1% | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-01-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26nov-t0.1 |
| Above 0.1% | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-01-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26oct-t0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 63¢ | −1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-02-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26may-t0.2 |
| Above 0.2% | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-02-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26oct-t0.2 |
| Above 0.2% | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-02-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26sep-t0.2 |
| Above 0.2% | 51¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-02-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26nov-t0.2 |
| Above 0.3% | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-03-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26sep-t0.3 |
| Above 0.3% | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-03-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26nov-t0.3 |
| Above 0.3% | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-03-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26oct-t0.3 |
| Above 0.4% | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-04-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26sep-t0.4 |
| Above 0.3% | 9¢ | +2pp | $733 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-03-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26may-t0.3 |
| Above 0.4% | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-04-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26nov-t0.4 |
| Above 0.4% | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-04-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26oct-t0.4 |
| Above 0.4% | 3¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-pce-inflation-be-above-04-in-kalshi-kxpcecore-26may-t0.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.0% | Above 0.1% | Above 0.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 91 | 79 | — |
| 2026-05-20 | 95 | 85 | 91 |
| 2026-05-22 | 46 | — | 91 |
| 2026-05-24 | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 95 | 86 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 96 | 91 | — |
| 2026-06-04 | 96 | 93 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 97 | — | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Above 0.3% −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 96% probability that core PCE inflation will be positive (above 0.0%) in September 2026. The high probability reflects historical precedent: core inflation has remained positive through most recent economic cycles, making a deflationary outcome relatively unlikely. The main factors driving this assessment are the Federal Reserve's inflation-targeting framework, labor market conditions, and wage growth trends. Markets are pricing in meaningful probability only for higher inflation thresholds—41 cents for above 0.3%—suggesting traders expect modest rather than elevated inflation. The critical data point will be the PCE report release for September 2026, expected in early October, which will definitively resolve all related contracts. Until then, economic data releases throughout summer 2026, including employment reports and consumer spending indicators, will likely influence market expectations.

### Key factors

- Core PCE has remained above 0.0% annualized in all months since 2021 except during deflationary episodes, establishing a strong historical baseline
- The 96% probability implies a roughly 4% market-implied probability of deflation, which typically requires severe economic contraction or demand collapse
- Probability drops to 77% for above 0.2% and 41% for above 0.3%, indicating markets expect core PCE in the 0.0-0.3% range rather than higher levels
- Labor market tightness and wage growth dynamics will be primary drivers of whether September inflation meets or falls short of the 0.0% threshold
- The September 2026 PCE report, released in early October 2026, will provide the definitive settlement data

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pcecore
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pcecore
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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