# Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pcehead
Updated: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-09-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.0% at 87%
- Runner-up: Above 0.1% at 85%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 87¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-headline-pce-inflation-for-august-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxpcehead-26sep30-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 85¢ | −34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-headline-pce-inflation-for-august-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxpcehead-26sep30-t0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 80¢ | −27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-headline-pce-inflation-for-august-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxpcehead-26sep30-t0.2 |
| Above 0.3% | 42¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-headline-pce-inflation-for-august-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxpcehead-26sep30-t0.3 |
| Above 0.4% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-headline-pce-inflation-for-august-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxpcehead-26sep30-t0.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.0% | Above 0.1% | Above 0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 24 | 18 | 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | 72 | 66 | 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | 87 | 83 | 51 |
| 2026-09-03 | 56 | 57 | 45 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | 85 | 80 |
| 2026-09-10 | 46 | 51 | 53 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that headline PCE inflation for August 2026 will show a month-over-month increase rather than stability or deflation. The contracts are tightly clustered at 70 cents for both 0.0% and 0.1% thresholds, then drop sharply below 0.2%, suggesting traders expect inflation in the range of 0.1% but view higher readings as unlikely. The main drivers are current economic momentum, Federal Reserve policy stance, and energy price movements. Market pricing indicates relatively low conviction—the 60% probability for above 0.0% is only moderately confident. The August 2026 PCE release date (scheduled for late September 2026) will provide the definitive resolution. Traders are balancing expectations of modest inflation against the possibility of a flat or slightly deflationary month-over-month reading.

### Key factors

- Contract pricing shows sharp drop from 70¢ at 0.1% to 7¢ at 0.2%, indicating consensus for very low monthly inflation if above zero
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent position changes or conviction updates
- The 60-70% probability band for 0.0-0.1% inflation is consistent with recent PCE trend data and Fed expectations for moderate price growth
- Energy price volatility and seasonal adjustments historically create month-to-month PCE swings, making predictions below 0.3% inherently uncertain
- August 2026 PCE data release scheduled for late September 2026 will definitively settle all eight contracts simultaneously

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pcehead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pcehead
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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