# Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 4 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pdcdarts
Updated: 2026-06-28T21:20:50.024Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-22

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $480

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Littler | 36¢ | −3pp | $427 | kalshi | /markets/will-luke-littler-win-the-pdc-world-championship-l-kalshi-kxpdcdarts-27-llit |
| Dirk van Duijvenbode | 10¢ | — | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-dirk-van-duijvenbode-win-the-pdc-world-champi-kalshi-kxpdcdarts-27-dvan |
| Gian van Veen | 3¢ | ±0 | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-gian-van-veen-win-the-pdc-world-championship-kalshi-kxpdcdarts-27-gvan |
| Luke Humphries | 21¢ | +11pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-luke-humphries-win-the-pdc-world-championship-kalshi-kxpdcdarts-27-lhum |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 9 |
| 2026-06-14 | 28 |
| 2026-06-21 | 33 |
| 2026-06-28 | 38 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-27 · Luke Humphries +11pp 12→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Luke Littler −9pp 48→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Luke Littler +8pp 41→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Luke Littler −8pp 49→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Luke Littler +7pp 46→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 17% probability reflects market expectations that Gian van Veen will win the PDC World Championship in the upcoming season. Van Veen has emerged as a competitive player in professional darts but faces stiff competition from Luke Littler (37%) and Luke Humphries (10%), among others. His probability is shaped by his recent tournament performance, ranking position, and consistency against top-ranked opponents. The PDC World Championship, typically held in December-January, serves as the sport's marquee event where rankings and form are tested against the full field. Changes to this probability would track with van Veen's performance in European Tour events and Players Championship tournaments leading up to the World Championship, as well as any significant injuries or form shifts among top competitors. The next major update point would come following major qualifying events in autumn 2026.

### Key factors

- Van Veen's current PDC ranking and seeding for the World Championship draw relative to top seeds like Littler and Humphries
- His performance record in televised majors and European Tour events in 2026 compared to historical consistency
- Average first-round opponent difficulty based on World Championship draw structure when seedings are finalized
- Head-to-head records and recent results against the probabilistic favorites in the market
- Injury status and playing schedule continuity in the months immediately preceding the December-January championship

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pdcdarts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pdcdarts

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.