# People's Bank of China rate change in April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:05:23.007Z
Category: economy · Topic: china
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 10% — 27pp spread
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 4¢ | −5pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-may-no-chang-polymarket-0x15b28500fbbbe23185f4e343fe7ff39921a0e56334472a6c6bc1ddf7c3e2d6da |
| Above 3.6% | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Above 4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t4.0 |
| Above 4.3% | 29¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-43-in-apri-kalshi-kxu3-26apr-t4.3 |
| Above 2.5% | 92¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-25-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.5 |
| No change | 7¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-may-no-change-polymarket-0xa919b6a7cc8c958d82141ec2ba77b8fe813083a7ee2083178305c409ae28ce0d |
| Above 3.7% | 31¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-37-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.7 |
| Maintain current rate | 7¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-mexico-maintain-current-rate-at-t-kalshi-kxcbdecisionmexico-26may07-hold |
| 4.4% | 19¢ | +1pp | $882 | polymarket | /markets/april-unemployment-rate-44-polymarket-0x6a0060911cc9c2d139607de13ba928b43735ea95d245fa72535ccc126a48488e |
| Above 4.2% | 62¢ | ±0 | $817 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-42-in-apri-kalshi-kxu3-26apr-t4.2 |
| Above 3.8% | 7¢ | ±0 | $751 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-38-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.8 |
| Above 2.4% | 3¢ | +1pp | $731 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26may13-t2.4 |
| Above 4.4% | 6¢ | +1pp | $499 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-44-in-apri-kalshi-kxu3-26apr-t4.4 |
| Above 3.9% | 3¢ | ±0 | $204 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-39-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.9 |
| Above 4.1% | 93¢ | ±0 | $123 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-41-in-apri-kalshi-kxu3-26apr-t4.1 |
| Above 5.3% | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/china-unemployment-rate-in-april-2026-above-53-kalshi-kxue-chn26apr-5.3 |
| Above 5.0% | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/china-unemployment-rate-in-april-2026-above-50-kalshi-kxue-chn26apr-5.0 |
| Above 5.4% | 6¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/china-unemployment-rate-in-april-2026-above-54-kalshi-kxue-chn26apr-5.4 |
| Above 5.1% | 74¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/china-unemployment-rate-in-april-2026-above-51-kalshi-kxue-chn26apr-5.1 |
| Above 5.2% | 40¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/china-unemployment-rate-in-april-2026-above-52-kalshi-kxue-chn26apr-5.2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 40 |
| 2026-04-19 | 33 |
| 2026-04-26 | 39 |
| 2026-05-03 | 23 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Maintain current rate −47pp 65→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · No change −43pp 65→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · No change −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Above 3.6% +11pp 48→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Maintain current rate −11pp 18→7¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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