# People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026

> Bad Bunny leads at 26%, runner-up 24% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/peoples-sexiest-man-alive
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.903Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Bad Bunny at 26%
- Runner-up: Michael B. Jordan at 24%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $60

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 26¢ | −2pp | $22 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-bad-bunny-polymarket-0x4465567f82d86fe0493c5629e53f30ddd2e3e9fc40de7523614480060bcaa745 |
| Michael B. Jordan | 24¢ | −1pp | $17 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-michael-b-jordan-polymarket-0xbe3d09c20ef2e0006e7c1ac42d720bee13f5ec6888160d779a048a6e3543a3b0 |
| Timothée Chalamet | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-timothe-chalamet-polymarket-0xff8f438848d6abae91baee12a87f9ee7810c7d3c00e2e67ae9c2c268ace2c426 |
| Ryan Gosling | 13¢ | −1pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-ryan-gosling-polymarket-0x8544e4036d07137650f4fd58f956afe172c441bb86481adead2c9996e50abb3a |
| Connor Storrie | 10¢ | +14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-connor-storrie-polymarket-0xe10fc4d148f46fb57b8ced09ea771009035d50df28cedcd45150004d3e2be034 |
| Hudson Williams | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-hudson-williams-polymarket-0x34f6849f2f6d6d7ab6830a62d0a4f13f458b63f27322224cad453b8d642417d1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-travis-kelce-polymarket-0xb3c6d6bebd3c37d19b66a2c26fe2110506313ec7b095e0740a68031d0c09732a |
| Clavicular | 5¢ | +2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/peoples-sexiest-man-alive-2026-clavicular-polymarket-0xf7cdd53b7a381d8f268200c1094795c79cab414ebb882b3f2df84908deb10803 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Bad Bunny | Michael B. Jordan | Timothée Chalamet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 | 18 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 | 15 | 13 |
| 2026-05-07 | 26 | 22 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 24 | — | 13 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Michael B. Jordan +7pp 16→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ryan Gosling +4pp 8→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Bad Bunny +3pp 19→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026 markets are pricing Bad Bunny as the narrow leader at 23%, with Michael B. Jordan close behind at 17% across various platforms. This represents traders' assessment of which male celebrity will receive People magazine's annual title, typically awarded in November. The relatively tight clustering of top candidates (no single frontrunner above 25%) reflects genuine uncertainty about People's editorial preferences and broader cultural momentum among major male celebrities. Resolution depends primarily on People magazine's selection process and editorial criteria, which historically favor established actors, musicians, or athletes with significant cultural presence in the year leading up to the announcement. The main drivers of current pricing appear to be recent media visibility, film and music releases, and social media prominence through mid-2026. People magazine typically announces the winner in November 2026, which serves as the key catalyst that will resolve all contracts.

### Key factors

- Bad Bunny's current 23% probability reflects his music industry prominence and cultural relevance, but leads by only one percentage point above Michael B. Jordan, indicating no consensus among traders
- Michael B. Jordan consistently prices in the 17% range across multiple platforms, suggesting stable market confidence in his candidacy independent of platform or contract structure
- The top seven candidates are distributed across a 23% to 5% range with no candidate exceeding 25%, indicating fragmentation typical of subjective award predictions
- Recent contract volumes ($145–$237 per day) are concentrated on Kalshi's dedicated contracts rather than Polymarket, suggesting platform-specific trader bases may be pricing slightly different expectations
- People magazine's announcement is scheduled for November 2026, which represents the hard resolution date and primary catalyst that will collapse all remaining uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/peoples-sexiest-man-alive
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=peoples-sexiest-man-alive

## License

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