# Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch — $100M

> $100M leads at 39%, runner-up 39% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.685Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $100M at 39%
- Runner-up: $500M at 39%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xc06a579753c869cb55d1ee858bb683acd4cabf74c7dcb9e96d37b9fc5418c436 |
| $500M | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x7aea4a3dbca0809315624f046d882e304f406a41fe8766b0fbee06ccb19c8bfa |
| $600M | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-600m-polymarket-0x4e4c206465fdd1ee129653eff03ccf55870321a3599bc4dd70b29f2dde23ccca |
| $400M | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-400m-polymarket-0xf9a2156b22eed87e94f55375ce31ad756ac504b08067357b4ee3ed6bec5a4c47 |
| $200M | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x61265cfec6a4af4352ab5a90b1c58b85ad654d8b6f2b5873d52b5be476fca412 |
| $300M | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x7f8fc9d7144fa4c9086da5ce9821fad8581f6bb0100fd9c8afda7bfbbdef7e0d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $100M | $500M | $600M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 22 | 10 | 7 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 34 | 10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 25 | 29 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 45 | 36 | 36 |
| 2026-05-08 | 39 | 36 | 37 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $100M −6pp 45→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $300M +5pp 18→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $500M +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $100M −3pp 48→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $400M +3pp 30→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Perena will reach a $100 million fully-diluted valuation within one day of its launch. At 47% probability, the market assigns near-even odds to this outcome, though the leading contract holder shows slightly more confidence than competing predictions. The near-parity reflects uncertainty about launch timing, initial market reception, and whether early trading volume and token allocation support a valuation at that threshold. Comparable token launches in the market show wide variation in day-one valuations depending on pre-launch hype, liquidity conditions, and demand from initial buyers. Resolution depends entirely on Perena's actual launch date and the market price established in that first 24-hour window. The significant volume in related FDV contracts—particularly the $500M and $800M thresholds—suggests active trader interest in mapping out the full valuation distribution rather than consensus around any single outcome.

### Key factors

- Perena's actual launch date remains unscheduled; earlier launches increase probability of reaching $100M FDV by concentrating trading activity
- Day-one market cap depends on initial token supply, liquidity provision strategy, and allocation to early participants relative to public float
- Comparable protocols show $100M day-one FDV is achievable but not standard; the $50M and $100M lower-bound contracts trade at 94¢ and 89¢ respectively, indicating high baseline expectations
- Market depth and order book quality at launch will determine whether sufficient buyer demand exists to sustain a $100M valuation through the first 24 hours
- Pre-launch community size and committed capital from investors and early stakeholders directly influence initial price discovery and trading volume

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.