# Who will perform the next James Bond Song

> Olivia Dean leads at 38%, runner-up 18% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performbondsong
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.409Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2035-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Olivia Dean at 38%
- Runner-up: Raye at 18%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Dean | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-olivia-d-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-oli |
| Raye | 18¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-raye-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-ray |
| Dua Lipa | 15¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-dua-lipa-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-dua |
| Lana Del Rey | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-lana-del-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-lan |
| Lorde | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-lorde-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-lor |
| Ed Sheeran | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-ed-sheer-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-ed |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-sabrina-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-sab |
| Lady Gaga | 6¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-lady-gag-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-lad |
| Oasis | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-oasis-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-oas |
| Miley Cyrus | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-miley-cy-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-mil |
| Taylor Swift | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-the-next-james-bond-song-taylor-s-kalshi-kxperformbondsong-35-tay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Olivia Dean | Raye | Dua Lipa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 19 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 44 | 19 | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 41 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 18 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 39 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-19 | 41 | 20 | 17 |
| 2026-06-22 | 39 | 26 | 15 |
| 2026-06-25 | 38 | 18 | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Olivia Dean −35pp 41→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Olivia Dean +33pp 6→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Dua Lipa −13pp 17→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Dua Lipa +11pp 4→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Raye −8pp 26→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 40% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Olivia Dean will perform the next James Bond theme song. The prediction is based on limited trading activity across nine contracts, with Olivia Dean commanding the plurality while other artists like Dua Lipa (16¢) and Lana Del Rey (15¢) also receive meaningful support. The probability would shift based on official announcements from Bond producers, production studio timelines for the next film installment, or news about which artists are in negotiations. The key uncertainty driver is whether a new James Bond film is in active development or greenlit, since the next theme song performer depends entirely on when the next movie production begins. Resolution will ultimately come from an official announcement by EON Productions or MGM designating the performer.

### Key factors

- No recent trading volume across any contracts ($0 24h volume), indicating minimal new information or market conviction in recent days
- Olivia Dean leads at 40% with next runner-up at 18%, suggesting significant but not overwhelming consensus
- The distribution across nine artists is relatively dispersed, with top five candidates ranging from 4¢ to 40¢, reflecting substantial uncertainty
- James Bond film production schedules and official soundtrack announcements are the primary triggers that would concentrate or disperse this probability
- Historical Bond theme singers have been established artists with strong commercial profiles, which constrains the plausible candidate pool

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performbondsong
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=performbondsong

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.