# Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 13 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performrole007
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:08.947Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adria Arjona | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adria-arjona-perform-as-a-principal-female-ch-kalshi-kxperformrole007-adr |
| Anya Taylor-Joy | 18¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anya-taylor-joy-perform-as-a-principal-female-kalshi-kxperformrole007-any |
| Cailee Spaeny | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cailee-spaeny-perform-as-a-principal-female-c-kalshi-kxperformrole007-cai |
| Daisy Edgar-Jones | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daisy-edgar-jones-perform-as-a-principal-fema-kalshi-kxperformrole007-dai |
| Florence Pugh | 3¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florence-pugh-perform-as-a-principal-female-c-kalshi-kxperformrole007-flo |
| Margaret Qualley | 25¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-margaret-qualley-perform-as-a-principal-femal-kalshi-kxperformrole007-mar |
| Mikey Madison | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mikey-madison-perform-as-a-principal-female-c-kalshi-kxperformrole007-mik |
| Sydney Sweeney | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sydney-sweeney-perform-as-a-principal-female-kalshi-kxperformrole007-syd |
| Zendaya | 3¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zendaya-perform-as-a-principal-female-charact-kalshi-kxperformrole007-zen |
| Aaron Staton | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-staton-perform-as-felix-leiter-in-the-n-kalshi-kxperformrole007-felix-aar |
| Albert Jones | 11¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-albert-jones-perform-as-felix-leiter-in-the-n-kalshi-kxperformrole007-felix-alb |
| Anthony Mackie | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-mackie-perform-as-felix-leiter-in-the-kalshi-kxperformrole007-felix-ant |
| Boyd Holbrook | 17¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boyd-holbrook-perform-as-felix-leiter-in-the-kalshi-kxperformrole007-felix-boy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 18 |
| 2026-05-26 | 8 |
| 2026-06-01 | 10 |
| 2026-06-08 | 11 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · Zendaya −7pp 10→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Florence Pugh −6pp 9→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Margaret Qualley +5pp 21→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Zendaya +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Anya Taylor-Joy +4pp 15→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Alison Oliver will be cast as Moneypenny in the upcoming James Bond film. At 6%, the market suggests this is considered unlikely relative to other potential casting choices. The current low probability likely reflects the lack of official announcements regarding either the next Bond film's production timeline or its casting decisions. Key factors driving this estimate include Oliver's profile in the industry, competing candidates for the role, and the typical casting patterns for Bond franchise supporting characters. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be an official announcement from the Bond producers about the next film's cast, which typically occurs during pre-production publicity phases.

### Key factors

- No confirmed release date or production start date has been announced for the next Bond film as of May 2026, creating high uncertainty about casting timelines
- Alison Oliver's casting history and visibility in major franchise roles relative to other actors typically considered for Bond supporting characters
- The Moneypenny role has specific casting precedents (previous actresses in the role) that may influence market expectations about demographic and professional profiles
- Bond film casting announcements typically occur months before production begins, meaning any material update would likely come from official studio communications
- The current 6% probability level suggests the market views other candidates as significantly more likely, which would shift if Oliver were publicly linked to the project

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performrole007
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=performrole007

## License

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