# Will Miles Brown perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 6 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performrolemilesmorales
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.762Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-12-30

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $33

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex R. Hibbert | 6¢ | +1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-r-hibbert-perform-as-miles-morales-in-th-kalshi-kxperformrolemilesmorales-ale |
| Dallas Dupree Young | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-dupree-young-perform-as-miles-morales-kalshi-kxperformrolemilesmorales-dal |
| Justice Smith | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justice-smith-perform-as-miles-morales-in-the-kalshi-kxperformrolemilesmorales-jus |
| Miles Brown | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miles-brown-perform-as-miles-morales-in-the-f-kalshi-kxperformrolemilesmorales-mil |
| Myles Truitt | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-myles-truitt-perform-as-miles-morales-in-the-kalshi-kxperformrolemilesmorales-myl |
| Tyler James Williams | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-james-williams-perform-as-miles-morales-kalshi-kxperformrolemilesmorales-tyl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | 7 |
| 2026-06-19 | 8 |
| 2026-06-25 | 8 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Alex R. Hibbert +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Justice Smith −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Tyler James Williams −3pp 10→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Miles Brown will be cast as Miles Morales in Marvel Studios' first live-action MCU film featuring the character. At 8%, this reflects relatively low confidence in Brown's casting compared to other candidates. The probability is primarily driven by casting decisions Marvel has yet to announce and the competitive field of young actors being considered for the role. Caleb McLaughlin leads alternative contracts at 12%, while Justice Smith and Tyler James Williams also trade higher than Brown. The resolution point will come when Marvel officially announces the actor selected for this role, likely through studio channels or major entertainment media. Until that announcement, market prices reflect traders' assessments of relative likelihood based on factors like actor availability, previous Marvel collaborations, and industry speculation.

### Key factors

- Caleb McLaughlin commands higher market probability (12¢) than Miles Brown (8¢), indicating traders perceive him as a stronger candidate
- The top five alternative candidates collectively represent 54¢ of probability, showing the market views this as highly competitive with no clear frontrunner
- Recent Marvel casting announcements and hiring patterns would inform whether Miles Brown fits the studio's typical selection criteria
- No official announcement or confirmed production timeline for a Miles Morales MCU film has been publicly released as of the market date
- Trading volume on the top contracts ($550 in 24h volume for McLaughlin) versus Brown's related contract indicates active market participation and potentially evolving sentiment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performrolemilesmorales
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=performrolemilesmorales

## License

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