# Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027

> JAY-Z leads at 40%, runner-up 35% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performsuperbowl
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:51.959Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-15

## Headline

- Leader: JAY-Z at 40%
- Runner-up: Miley Cyrus at 35%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $63

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAY-Z | 40¢ | −2pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-jay |
| Miley Cyrus | 35¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-mil |
| Justin Bieber | 34¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-jus |
| Ella Langley | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-ell |
| Dua Lipa | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-dua |
| Drake | 9¢ | +2pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-dra |
| Bad Bunny | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-bad |
| Ariana Grande | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-ari |
| Ed Sheeran | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-ed |
| Post Malone | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-pos |
| Lil Wayne | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-way |
| Taylor Swift | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-tay |
| Morgan Wallen | 4¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-mor |
| Billie Eilish | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-bil |
| BTS | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-bts |
| Future | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxperformsuperbowl-27b-fut |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | JAY-Z | Miley Cyrus | Justin Bieber |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 51 | 26 | 30 |
| 2026-07-27 | 25 | 26 | 26 |
| 2026-08-01 | 44 | 29 | 36 |
| 2026-08-03 | 42 | — | 33 |
| 2026-08-09 | 40 | 33 | 33 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Morgan Wallen −6pp 10→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · JAY-Z −3pp 45→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Miley Cyrus +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 50% probability reflects traders' assessment that Jay-Z is the current favorite to perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship halftime show on February 14. This estimate is driven by his cultural prominence, past Super Bowl involvement, and lack of recent performance commitments that would conflict with the date. The probability would shift significantly if the NFL officially announces the performer, if Jay-Z publicly declines or commits to a conflicting engagement, or if competing artists secure high-profile confirmations that signal they are unavailable. The halftime show is typically announced 2-4 weeks before the event, making the announcement window in late January or early February 2027 the key catalyst that would resolve this market. Until then, pricing reflects uncertainty among a relatively small contract volume with minimal recent trading activity.

### Key factors

- Jay-Z's pricing at 50% is substantially higher than the next tier of artists (Beyoncé at 10%, Ariana Grande at 8%), indicating concentrated trader conviction rather than broad-based consensus
- Trading volume is zero across all major contracts in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited new information flow and prices that may not reflect recent developments in entertainment or performer scheduling
- The NFL typically announces halftime performers 2-4 weeks before the championship game, meaning the resolution date is approximately 6 months away with no scheduled announcements currently visible
- Jay-Z's involvement with Roc Nation (an entertainment management company) and past association with NFL events provide a plausible basis for the elevated probability, but no public statements confirm his availability or interest
- Runner-up at 24% probability indicates material uncertainty; if that contract represents a specific alternative performer, it suggests traders assign meaningful odds to at least one competing outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performsuperbowl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=performsuperbowl

## License

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