# Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 24 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performvs
Updated: 2026-05-24T07:20:13.311Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Chappell Roan at 4%
- Runner-up: Sabrina Carpenter at 4%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chappell Roan | 4¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-chap |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 4¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-sab |
| Cardi B | 3¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-car |
| Doechii | 3¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-doe |
| Doja Cat | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-doj |
| Dua Lipa | 3¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-dua |
| Ice Spice | 3¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-ice |
| Kali Uchis | 3¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-kal |
| KATSEYE | 3¢ | +27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-kats |
| Lana Del Rey | 3¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-lan |
| Megan Thee Stallion | 3¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-meg |
| Sexyy Red | 3¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-sex |
| Shakira | 3¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-shak |
| Tate McRae | 3¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-tat |
| Tyla | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-tyla |
| Charli xcx | 3¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-perform-at-the-victorias-secret-fashion-s-kalshi-kxperformvs-26-xcx |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chappell Roan | Sabrina Carpenter | Cardi B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 2026-06-01 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-06-03 | 13 | 10 | 21 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 4% probability reflects market expectations that a specific performer will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026. The relatively low probability suggests significant uncertainty about which artist will be selected, typical when multiple potential performers compete for a limited number of slots. The show's lineup typically isn't announced until weeks before the event, meaning current pricing reflects sparse public information about 2026's confirmed performers. Key drivers include the show's production timeline, announced performer confirmations, and scheduling conflicts of top-tier artists. The primary resolution catalyst will be the official lineup announcement, expected closer to the show's air date. Until then, market participants lack concrete signals about which performers have committed, keeping probabilities dispersed across multiple candidates.

### Key factors

- Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026 lineup has not been publicly announced; performers are typically confirmed 4-8 weeks before the event
- 16 separate outcome contracts exist with no single contract exceeding 4%, indicating market fragmentation across multiple potential performers
- The show's broadcast date and production schedule determine the announcement window and resolution timeline
- Artist availability and scheduling conflicts throughout 2026 will influence which performers accept invitations
- Historical precedent shows Victoria's Secret typically books established pop/mainstream artists, which constrains the realistic performer pool

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/performvs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=performvs

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.