# Will George W. Bush be seen in public before Jun 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 56% across 2 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/personpublic
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.533Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 56% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | 48¢ | −3pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-w-bush-be-seen-in-public-before-jun-1-kalshi-kxpersonpublic-26jun01-gbus |
| Joe Biden | 63¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-biden-be-seen-in-public-before-jun-1-2026-kalshi-kxpersonpublic-26jun01-jbid |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 62 |
| 2026-05-02 | 65 |
| 2026-05-08 | 64 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · George W. Bush −8pp 59→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Joe Biden −8pp 71→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · George W. Bush +3pp 57→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · George W. Bush −3pp 51→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Joe Biden +3pp 67→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 76% chance that former President George W. Bush will make a public appearance within the next four weeks. The relatively high probability reflects Bush's consistent pattern of public activity in recent years, including speaking engagements, charity events, and social appearances. The main factors affecting this probability are Bush's current health status and his scheduled commitments during late May. The resolution depends entirely on whether any public sighting—whether planned or candid—occurs before June 1, 2026. Events like the opening of his presidential library events, family occasions, or routine public activities could occur. The market assigns meaningful probability to non-appearance, suggesting traders account for health uncertainties or unexpected circumstances that could keep him out of public view during this specific window.

### Key factors

- Bush's public activity frequency in 2025-2026 compared to historical baseline for the same season
- Reported health status or scheduled medical procedures that might affect mobility during late May
- Announced public commitments or events during the May 4-June 1 window (conferences, dedications, charity events)
- Media monitoring data showing whether Bush has been visible in any public setting in the preceding 30 days
- Definition of 'seen in public' in the contract terms—whether photographs, video, or credible witness accounts qualify

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/personpublic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=personpublic

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.