# Peru Liga 1

> Winner: Comerciantes Unidos leads at 47%, runner-up 47% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/peru-liga-1
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.069Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-14

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Comerciantes Unidos at 47%
- Runner-up: Winner: Atlético Grau at 47%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Comerciantes Unidos | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-comerciantes-unidos-polymarket-0x81c71c363bf17b98b6a3188e0dcd1ea37f1a61923df883cb3ce3c8d37e203737 |
| Winner: Atlético Grau | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-atltico-grau-polymarket-0x6c705a5897584b110859f1c3fcb19bcd6b630d98c44d6f57c0ec57eb7d0ec74f |
| Winner: Cienciano | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-cienciano-polymarket-0xdb2318771af66fa8e76839ec4f53cf42949d2cb1e36aff5b068668d2c5f63aee |
| Winner: FC Cajamarca | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-fc-cajamarca-polymarket-0x5d7a488a46923432d770d3d4e591a2515fc8ff7bd4bd6a41c65de1a5d11ac346 |
| Winner: UTC Cajamarca | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-utc-cajamarca-polymarket-0x38cafba5955adf40c297eec860eecf90abc8f61dee97bc4df99722aed8f323c9 |
| Winner: Alianza Lima | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-alianza-lima-polymarket-0x746113e90cfcf6be7853c09ad00d94cc6e15dba379a7c894924d39311ba9a539 |
| Winner: Deportivo Garcilaso | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-deportivo-garcilaso-polymarket-0x615e32b318b7917f71f23f04c29c43994ad1bb58259c0414d7ee36e092f07025 |
| Winner: Sporting Cristal | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-sporting-cristal-polymarket-0x761e931e6b6358804193a112ceaea19c43400e2e1d319476888a5236151d75ac |
| Winner: Alianza Atlético Sullana | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-alianza-atltico-sullana-polymarket-0x0b308d7342f07f93beaa56fbe339d3aab344de8a0e781c5a814068d5adeaa527 |
| Winner: ADT | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-adt-polymarket-0x311d5340b781328283f3ae6c916964269476386bc8b34048f96d7b95fcafa6a3 |
| Winner: Deportivo Moquegua | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-deportivo-moquegua-polymarket-0xd371dc76363ee44a8a2ca9c81db45a082181d7c6d22c0128046db4cdea0f7509 |
| Winner: Universitario | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-universitario-polymarket-0xb53a7661f0d4cd6adece61edede623b8d42b92a49d4f938ad16e03e3becfd05b |
| Winner: FBC Melgar | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-fbc-melgar-polymarket-0x76bf62c730571c17eabe0ef8ebb98d840c55e1e73f0e70e5bd569e799bdf4262 |
| Winner: Los Chankas | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-los-chankas-polymarket-0xecddc28a615a13d04f6d04ad975da798b86681016c9abaf9fff79df5fb027504 |
| Winner: Sport Huancayo | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-sport-huancayo-polymarket-0x4d861142ec06d050711db80f2a4745a1cb75e460b643c9be45d15cdb8bb94d94 |
| Winner: Sport Boys | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-sport-boys-polymarket-0x20e15cf9e6babb28146dffb6c74bebb5d4304173588190dbb9c51c65440a8f19 |
| Winner: Cusco FC | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-cusco-fc-polymarket-0x5f8237dc8fefc8ae24367682af79ed0e47c077419cef30386765097ec7929a4c |
| Winner: Juan Pablo II | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/peru-liga-1-winner-juan-pablo-ii-polymarket-0xa74124056be33a4fa85e1732c0270345fb0000ec2c60cbe159b00321a91d8818 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Comerciantes Unidos | Winner: Atlético Grau | Winner: Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 49 | — | 49 |
| 2026-04-26 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | 48 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | 48 | 48 | 48 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Alianza Atlético Sullana will win the 2026 Peru Liga 1 championship. The current 48% price reflects a highly fragmented market where multiple teams are priced identically, suggesting either genuine competitive parity among top contenders or insufficient trading volume to establish clear differentiation. The market would shift based on team performance in upcoming matches, injury status of key players, and head-to-head results between the leading candidates. Resolution depends on the completion of the 2026 Liga 1 season, with the champion determined by final standings or playoff outcomes depending on Peru's league format.

### Key factors

- Five distinct teams are priced at 48% each, indicating the market sees them as essentially equivalent title contenders rather than a single clear favorite
- Trading volume across all contracts is zero over the past 24 hours, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
- The identical pricing across multiple teams may reflect a default or initial market setup rather than genuine probabilistic assessment
- Recent match results and current league standings would be necessary to validate whether these teams actually deserve equal weighting
- Season timing and format details for Peru Liga 1 2026 would determine when the championship resolves and what events could shift probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/peru-liga-1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=peru-liga-1

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.