# Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%

> Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% leads at 38%, runner-up 19% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 21 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/perupresmov
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.576Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% at 38%
- Runner-up: Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% at 19%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $237

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-keiko-fujimori-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-kfuj-p1 |
| Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% | 19¢ | +3pp | $237 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-roberto-snchez-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-rsan-p1 |
| Keiko Fujimori, 3-6% | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-keiko-fujimori-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-kfuj-p4 |
| Roberto Sánchez, 3-6% | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-roberto-snchez-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-rsan-p4 |
| Keiko Fujimori, 6-9% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-keiko-fujimori-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-kfuj-p7 |
| Keiko Fujimori, 9-12% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-keiko-fujimori-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-rali-p10 |
| Roberto Sánchez, ≥12% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-roberto-snchez-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-rsan-p56 |
| Roberto Sánchez, 6-9% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-roberto-snchez-in-t-kalshi-kxperupresmov-26jun07-rsan-p7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% | Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% | Keiko Fujimori, 3-6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | 45 | 12 | 20 |
| 2026-05-22 | 41 | 15 | 17 |
| 2026-05-23 | 40 | 17 | 21 |
| 2026-05-27 | 39 | 18 | 14 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 21 | 13 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% −4pp 45→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Keiko Fujimori, 3-6% +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Keiko Fujimori, 3-6% −4pp 21→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% +3pp 12→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% +3pp 18→21¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/perupresmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=perupresmov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.