# Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-december-31
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:20:25.879Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 37¢ | −4pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-decemb-polymarket-0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 44 |
| 2026-04-24 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-06 | 37 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? −4pp 41→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 39% probability that Pete Hegseth, the current U.S. Secretary of Defense, will leave office before the end of 2026. The probability is shaped by two main considerations: Hegseth's tenure stability within the Trump administration and the political dynamics that could force a cabinet resignation. The most significant catalyst remains Congressional oversight and potential confirmation-related controversies, as cabinet members can face sudden departures due to scandal, health issues, policy disagreements, or political pressure. Historically, cabinet members serve full terms more often than not, but the current probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about Hegseth's specific position through year-end.

### Key factors

- Hegseth has faced previous controversies including allegations and military misconduct questions during his 2025 confirmation process, which could resurface
- Cabinet departures typically occur due to scandal, policy conflicts with the President, or health issues—none of which have been widely reported as imminent
- The Secretary of Defense role involves high-stakes decisions on Ukraine, China, and military spending that could create pressure points for departure
- Trump administration cabinet turnover has historically been higher than typical administrations, affecting baseline expectations for all secretaries
- Congressional investigations or military personnel controversies could emerge that specifically target Hegseth's leadership through 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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