# Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | 4¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-june-3-polymarket-0x269b4de59b444c57f166f690b1ce8c388bf26167c6a68f7613ab5b05e86375a8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 6 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2 |
| 2026-06-18 | 4 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Pete Hegseth, the current Secretary of Defense, will be removed from office before June 30, 2026—roughly two weeks from now. The low 4% probability suggests market participants view his departure as unlikely in this timeframe. The level reflects Hegseth's relative stability in his position combined with the short remaining duration. Significant movement would likely depend on major scandals, legal developments, health crises, or explicit statements from President Trump indicating his removal. Since the contract resolves in mid-June, the primary catalyst would be any breaking news or formal announcements during this narrow window. Without specific imminent threats to his tenure, the market maintains a baseline probability accounting for unexpected events.

### Key factors

- Hegseth holds the office as of mid-June 2026 with no publicly reported resignation plans or removal proceedings
- The 13-day window to resolution limits time for political developments that could trigger his departure
- Historical precedent shows Cabinet removals typically follow public controversy, legal action, or explicit presidential direction
- Market volume is relatively modest at ~$18k in 24-hour trading, suggesting limited deep conviction on either side
- Any reversal would require either unprecedented urgency in removal proceedings or a sudden major incident becoming public knowledge

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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