# Will Matthieu Pavon win the 1st round 3-ball matchup

> Closed. Final outcome: scalar. Last odds frozen 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pga3ball
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-21

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: scalar

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Williams beats Phillips and Crowe | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wells-williams-win-the-1st-round-3-ball-match-kalshi-kxpga3ball-onmbc26r1wwiltphitcro-wwil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 20 |
| 2026-05-07 | 21 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Matthieu Pavon is expected to win his first-round three-ball matchup at 31%, meaning the market sees him as an underdog against his paired opponents. The current pricing reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and course fit for the specific tournament being played. Pavon's probability could shift based on recent performance in comparable events, any changes to the three-ball grouping, or updated odds-making information from sportsbooks. The resolution date depends on when the first round of the tournament is scheduled to be played, at which point one of the three golfers will advance or the format will determine an outcome. Market participants would adjust this estimate if new evidence about Pavon's current game or course history emerges before play begins.

### Key factors

- Pavon's recent tournament finishes and scoring averages relative to his paired opponents
- Head-to-head historical performance records between Pavon and the other two golfers in the grouping
- Course characteristics and how Pavon's playing style matches the specific layout
- Current injury status or playing schedule information for all three golfers
- Sportsbook moneyline odds and other market prices for this matchup available elsewhere

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pga3ball
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pga3ball

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.