# Jake Knapp to compete in PGA Championship in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 11 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgac
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.717Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $164

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Knapp | 76¢ | ±0 | $164 | kalshi | /markets/jake-knapp-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-2026-kalshi-kxpgac-26-jkna |
| Max Homa | 37¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/max-homa-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-2026-ma-kalshi-kxpgac-26-mhom |
| Tony Finau | 47¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tony-finau-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-2026-kalshi-kxpgac-26-tfin |
| Collin Morikawa | 48¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/collin-morikawa-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-kalshi-kxpgac-26-cmor |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 85¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sudarshan-yellamaraju-to-compete-in-pga-championsh-kalshi-kxpgac-26-syel |
| Tom Hoge | 48¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tom-hoge-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-2026-to-kalshi-kxpgac-26-thog |
| Webb Simpson | 47¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/webb-simpson-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-202-kalshi-kxpgac-26-wsim |
| Martin Kaymer | 56¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/martin-kaymer-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-20-kalshi-kxpgac-26-mkay |
| Michael Block | 56¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/michael-block-to-compete-in-pga-championship-in-20-kalshi-kxpgac-26-mblo |
| Mac Meissner | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mac-meissner-to-compete-in-a-pga-championship-in-2-kalshi-kxpgac-26may-mmei |
| Keita Nakajima | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/keita-nakajima-to-compete-in-a-pga-championship-in-kalshi-kxpgac-26may-knak |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 27 |
| 2026-05-07 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | 36 |
| 2026-05-09 | 44 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Max Homa −25pp 65→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Tony Finau +18pp 13→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Collin Morikawa +18pp 14→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Tom Hoge +18pp 14→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Webb Simpson +18pp 13→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 51% chance that professional golfer Jake Knapp will compete in the 2026 PGA Championship, which takes place in May 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Knapp will qualify through standard PGA Tour eligibility requirements or receive an invitation. Key factors include Knapp's current world ranking, his performance in qualifying events earlier in 2026, and the PGA of America's selection criteria for tournament invitations. The market shows moderate confidence rather than strong conviction either direction, with trading volume of $1,000 in the past 24 hours suggesting interest but not intense activity. The PGA Championship field announcement, typically made several weeks before the tournament, will definitively resolve this question by confirming the complete competitor list.

### Key factors

- Jake Knapp's current Official World Golf Ranking relative to automatic qualification thresholds
- His performance record in 2026 PGA Tour events preceding the championship deadline
- PGA of America's historical patterns for sponsor exemptions and invitation criteria
- Whether Knapp has secured playing status through recent tour events or qualifying tournaments
- The specific field size and invitation allocation for the 2026 PGA Championship

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgac
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgac

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.