# Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Zurich Classic of New Orleans

> 1+ holes-in-one leads at 42%, runner-up 18% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaholeinone
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:44.424Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Leader: 1+ holes-in-one at 42%
- Runner-up: 2+ holes-in-one at 18%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ holes-in-one | 42¢ | +1pp | $586 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-1-holes-in-one-at-the-2026-pga-champ-kalshi-kxpgaholeinone-pgc26-1 |
| 2+ holes-in-one | 18¢ | +4pp | $952 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-2-holes-in-one-at-the-2026-truist-ch-kalshi-kxpgaholeinone-trc26-2 |
| 1+ holes-in-one | 18¢ | −17pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-1-holes-in-one-at-the-2026-oneflight-kalshi-kxpgaholeinone-onmbc26-1 |
| 2+ holes-in-one | 12¢ | +6pp | $205 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-2-holes-in-one-at-the-2026-pga-champ-kalshi-kxpgaholeinone-pgc26-2 |
| 3+ holes-in-one | 3¢ | −1pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-3-holes-in-one-at-the-2026-pga-champ-kalshi-kxpgaholeinone-pgc26-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1+ holes-in-one | 2+ holes-in-one | 1+ holes-in-one |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 5 | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 33 | — | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 45 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 40 | 6 | 39 |
| 2026-05-07 | 40 | 6 | 37 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | 6 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | 42 | 10 | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · 1+ holes-in-one −17pp 37→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · 2+ holes-in-one +6pp 12→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · 2+ holes-in-one +4pp 6→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 1+ holes-in-one −4pp 45→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 2+ holes-in-one +4pp 8→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves to YES if at least one hole-in-one occurs during the 2026 Zurich Classic of New Orleans tournament. The 40% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether this rare event will happen over the course of the event. Holes-in-one depend on player skill, course difficulty, pin placement, and field size. The tournament typically features two-player teams competing over four rounds, which affects the probability—more players and more shots increases the likelihood of at least one ace occurring. The key catalyst is the tournament itself, scheduled for late April or May 2026, when all shots will be recorded and the event will either produce one or more holes-in-one or resolve as a non-occurrence. Historical frequency of aces in PGA events and the specific course setup at the Zurich Classic will ultimately determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- Tournament field size and number of competitive rounds affect cumulative probability—larger fields with more shots increase likelihood of at least one ace
- Course layout and par-3 difficulty determine which holes are ace-capable and how challenging they are relative to typical PGA venues
- Historical hole-in-one frequency at the Zurich Classic's host course provides baseline expectations for ace occurrence rates
- Weather conditions during tournament dates influence ball flight and green difficulty, potentially affecting ace probability
- Pin placements and green positioning during competition weeks are unknown variables that affect shot difficulty on par-3 holes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaholeinone
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgaholeinone

## License

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