# All 4 Golf Major Tournaments

> Will any golfer finish top 10?: Any golfer leads at 42%, runner-up 24% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgamajortop10
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.477Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Leader: Will any golfer finish top 10?: Any golfer at 42%
- Runner-up: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?: Scottie Scheffler at 24%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $136

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any golfer finish top 10?: Any golfer | 42¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-any-golfer-finis-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-any |
| Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?: Scottie Scheffler | 24¢ | −4pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-scottie-scheffle-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-ssch |
| Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?: Rory McIlroy | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-rory-mcilroy-fin-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-rmci |
| Will Cameron Young finish top 10?: Cameron Young | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-cameron-young-fi-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-cyou |
| Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?: Xander Schauffele | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-xander-schauffel-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-xsch |
| Will Russell Henley finish top 10?: Russell Henley | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-russell-henley-f-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-rhen |
| Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?: Collin Morikawa | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-collin-morikawa-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-cmor |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?: Tyrrell Hatton | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-tyrrell-hatton-f-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-that |
| Will Sam Burns finish top 10?: Sam Burns | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-sam-burns-finish-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-sbur |
| Will Max Homa finish top 10?: Max Homa | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/all-4-golf-major-tournaments-will-max-homa-finish-kalshi-kxpgamajortop10-majors26-mhom |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will any golfer finish top 10?: Any golfer | Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?: Scottie Scheffler | Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?: Rory McIlroy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 39 | 17 | 5 |
| 2026-04-24 | 42 | 29 | 12 |
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | 26 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 30 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 28 | 12 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 24 | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?: Scottie Scheffler +4pp 26→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?: Scottie Scheffler −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Will Cameron Young finish top 10?: Cameron Young +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 42% probability indicates market participants expect at least one of the four major golf tournaments in 2026 to be won by a player outside the consensus top contenders, or reflects uncertainty about which established favorite will capture multiple majors. The market is pricing significant unpredictability in outcomes across the Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, and PGA Championship. The leading contract shows strong interest in Scottie Scheffler winning multiple majors (priced at 9¢), suggesting markets view him as a favorite but not dominant. Resolution depends entirely on actual tournament results from spring through summer 2026, with each major championship serving as a sequential catalyst that narrows uncertainty and eliminates possibilities.

### Key factors

- Scottie Scheffler's current form and injury status heading into 2026 season; his dominance in 2024 suggests he remains central to pricing but is not consensus to win all four majors
- Competitive depth among top-ranked golfers; whether Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and other established players can convert major opportunities affects who captures titles
- Tournament-specific conditions and course suitability; major championships favor different playing styles (Augusta's precision versus links golf), creating legitimate uncertainty about single-winner dominance
- Timing of majors relative to player fitness, form cycles, and international travel; back-to-back or clustered tournaments may disadvantage some competitors
- No single outcome appears heavily favored; the leader at 42% combined with runner-up at 26% shows market views the field as relatively distributed among multiple scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgamajortop10
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgamajortop10

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