# Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026

> Scottie Scheffler leads at 47%, runner-up 16% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgamajorwin
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.343Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Scottie Scheffler at 47%
- Runner-up: Cameron Young at 16%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $857

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 47¢ | ±0 | $69 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-scottie-sche-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-ssch |
| Cameron Young | 16¢ | +1pp | $483 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-cameron-youn-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-cyou |
| Jon Rahm | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-jon-rahm-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-jrah |
| Xander Schauffele | 14¢ | +2pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-xander-schau-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-xsch |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 14¢ | −1pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-bryson-decha-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-bdec |
| Ludvig Aberg | 12¢ | +1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-ludvig-aberg-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-labe |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 11¢ | −1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-matt-fitzpat-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-mfit |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-tommy-fleetw-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-tfle |
| Justin Rose | 8¢ | +2pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-justin-rose-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-jros |
| Maverick McNealy | 6¢ | +1pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-maverick-mcn-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-mmcn |
| Akshay Bhatia | 6¢ | ±0 | $15 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-akshay-bhati-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-abha |
| Collin Morikawa | 6¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-collin-morik-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-cmor |
| Robert MacIntyre | 5¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-robert-macin-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-rmac |
| Sepp Straka | 4¢ | +1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-sepp-straka-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-sstra |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 4¢ | — | $16 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-tyrrell-hatt-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-that |
| Justin Thomas | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-justin-thoma-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-jtho |
| Si Woo Kim | 3¢ | −1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-si-woo-kim-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-swoo |
| Corey Conners | 3¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-corey-conner-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-ccon |
| Jordan Spieth | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-a-pga-tour-major-in-2026-jordan-spiet-kalshi-kxpgamajorwin-26-jspi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Scottie Scheffler | Cameron Young | Jon Rahm |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 49 | 9 | 15 |
| 2026-04-24 | 45 | 15 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 46 | — | 16 |
| 2026-04-29 | 47 | — | 16 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 15 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 18 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that an individual golfer will capture one of professional golf's five major championships in 2026. The 15% price on the leading contract indicates a competitive field where no single player is heavily favored, though Scottie Scheffler's 47¢ price shows market consensus around an elite performer. The probability would rise if a player demonstrates sustained form heading into spring majors or falls if injury, form decline, or inconsistent recent results diminish prospects. Major championships scheduled between April and July 2026 will sequentially resolve these outcomes, with the first major typically occurring in April. Trading volume and price dispersion across contracts suggest meaningful disagreement about who will win, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of major tournament results across multiple events.

### Key factors

- Scottie Scheffler prices at 47¢, nearly 10x higher than next-ranked players, indicating market recognition of recent major championship dominance
- Top five contracts span 5¢ to 47¢, showing substantial disagreement on winner identity and suggesting no overwhelming consensus
- 24-hour trading volumes are moderate (164–395 per contract), indicating active but not extremely high engagement relative to major betting events
- Five major championships scheduled across 2026 create multiple resolution opportunities, increasing probability that eventually some player in the field will win
- Youth and experience mix among top-priced players (Gotterup 25, Rose 46, Young 27, Fitzpatrick 31, Scheffler 29) reflects different paths to major success

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgamajorwin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgamajorwin

## License

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