# Will there be a playoff at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaplayoff
Updated: 2026-08-09T22:20:51.963Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-06

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Playoff | 20¢ | +16pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-a-playoff-at-the-2026-wyndham-champi-kalshi-kxpgaplayoff-wyc26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | 43 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Playoff +16pp 27→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Playoff +13pp 17→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Playoff −4pp 15→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Playoff +4pp 13→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Playoff −3pp 30→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 6% probability that the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open will end with a playoff between tied players. Golf majors and regular tour events rarely require playoffs—most fields are large enough and scoring conditions varied enough that outright winners emerge. Playoff frequency depends on field strength, course setup, and weather conditions during the tournament. The 2026 event will occur in early July at Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Historical playoff rates across professional golf typically range from 2–5%, making 6% slightly elevated but still representing an uncommon outcome. The contract resolves definitively when the tournament concludes, based on whether the winner is determined by a playoff or standard scoring.

### Key factors

- Historical playoff frequency in professional golf events averages 2-5%, providing a baseline for whether 6% is above or below normal
- Course difficulty and setup at Renaissance Club in 2026 will affect scoring compression—tighter setups increase playoff probability, generous conditions reduce it
- Field size and participant caliber influence variance in final scores; larger, deeper fields make ties less probable than smaller or less competitive events
- Weather conditions during the 2026 tournament dates (early July in Scotland) will determine scoring difficulty and likelihood of tied leaders
- The specific playoff format rules established by the DP World Tour for the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open will affect how scoring ties are resolved

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaplayoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgaplayoff

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.