# Will Harris English lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 8 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar1lead
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:51.674Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 8¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-rory-mcilroy-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-rmci |
| Cameron Young | 4¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-young-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-t-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-came |
| Scottie Scheffler | 9¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-ssch |
| Collin Morikawa | 3¢ | −1pp | $510 | kalshi | /markets/will-collin-morikawa-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-cmor |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3¢ | +1pp | $368 | kalshi | /markets/will-ludvig-aberg-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-labe |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 5¢ | +1pp | $216 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-fitzpatrick-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-i-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-mfit |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 3¢ | −1pp | $143 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryson-dechambeau-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-bdec |
| Jon Rahm | 4¢ | −1pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-rahm-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-the-pg-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-jrah |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 11 |
| 2026-04-20 | 9 |
| 2026-04-26 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 4 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Harris English will have the lowest score after 18 holes of the PGA Championship. The 5% probability reflects that English would need to outperform roughly 150 other competitors in a single round to lead. Harris English's historical performance at major championships and his current form relative to top-ranked players influence this estimate. The primary driver of the probability is his tournament history and season statistics compared to favorites like Scheffler, McIlroy, and Young, who occupy similar markets at higher probabilities. The contract resolves when the PGA Championship's opening round concludes and official scoring is finalized. Market activity for related contracts shows greater confidence in established top-10 ranked players leading after Round 1, suggesting a gap in perceived likelihood between English and leading competitors.

### Key factors

- Harris English's world ranking and recent tournament results compared to other competitors in the field
- Historical performance by English in major championships, particularly first-round scoring patterns
- Field size and competition depth at the PGA Championship versus English's baseline winning probability
- Current odds for top-ranked players like Scheffler (9¢) and McIlroy (8¢) to lead suggest English carries structural disadvantage
- Whether English qualifies for and enters the specific PGA Championship tournament being referenced

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar1lead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgar1lead

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.