# Zurich Classic of New Orleans

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar1top10
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:59.532Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 35% / Polymarket 26% — 9pp spread
- 24h volume: $639

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | 28¢ | +1pp | $504 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-orleans-win-the-pro-football-nfc-south-di-kalshi-kxnflnfcsouth-27-no |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team: New Orleans Pelicans | 28¢ | +6pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/nba-giannis-antetokounmpo-next-team-new-orleans-pe-polymarket-0x406332e914488015bd49ab1aac3df85126d95e0521949cc5fe7cceb71f9cc750 |
| 10+ wins | 22¢ | +8pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-10 |
| New Orleans | 34¢ | ±0 | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-orleans-be-one-of-the-2026-27-pro-footbal-kalshi-kxnflplayoff-27-no |
| 9+ wins | 35¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-9 |
| LeBron James Next Team: New Orleans Pelicans | 7¢ | — | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nba-lebron-james-next-team-new-orleans-pelicans-polymarket-0xd66ba2f951c83e11f9243e8f5348503dca472cade038632a8881434d0facb0ad |
| 8+ wins | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-8 |
| Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New Orleans Saints | 3¢ | −29pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-where-will-dexter-lawrence-play-week-polymarket-0x55213ccc171dc62341d25a85be6772355ba3457fea2646cde6df39254da52db1 |
| 2+ wins | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-2 |
| 3+ wins | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-3 |
| 6+ wins | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-6 |
| 7+ wins | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-7 |
| Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: New Orleans | 6¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pro-football-teams-with-5-primetime-games-new-orle-kalshi-kxnflprimetime-27-no |
| 12+ wins | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-12 |
| 5+ wins | 68¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-orleans-pro-football-team-win-at-leas-kalshi-kxnflwins-27no-5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 42¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-george-pickens-play-in-2026-27-new-orle-polymarket-0x86b5ac09ebf7a0c0ce5e0f2119600de9ef411a7825901a2d4de26907f52cdafb |
| New Orleans | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-kayvon-thibodeauxs-next-team-new-orle-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-26kthibodeaux5-no |
| NFC South Champion: New Orleans Saints | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/pro-football-nfc-south-champion-new-orleans-saints-polymarket-0xd6118440343968bb7dba587482a24e77308f438df8f76077363249248e240ef5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 47¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-joey-bosa-play-in-2026-27-new-orleans-s-polymarket-0x71548a1b0803c7db404622261be6d0a31ce5ee66facd1f3bfe51ac6d5f3facad |
| James Borrego | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-new-orleans-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-nop26-jbor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 22 |
| 2026-04-20 | 36 |
| 2026-04-27 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New Orleans Saints −29pp 39→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · 6+ wins +28pp 33→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · 9+ wins +21pp 13→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · New Orleans Saints +19pp 31→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team: New Orleans Pelicans +15pp 28→43¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar1top10
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgar1top10

## License

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