# Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 2 in the PGA Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar2lead
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:05:38.506Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $41K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Clanton | 4¢ | — | $41K | kalshi | /markets/will-luke-clanton-lead-at-the-end-of-round-2-in-th-kalshi-kxpgar2lead-onmbc26-lcla |

## Analysis

This probability estimates an 11% chance that Cameron Young will hold the lead after 36 holes of the 2026 PGA Championship. Young's relatively low odds reflect both the competitive field in major championships and the difficulty of maintaining a lead over two rounds. The main factors affecting this probability are Young's recent form and consistency at major tournaments, as well as how the specific course setup and weather conditions at the championship venue might favor or disadvantage his playing style. The probability will become clearer once the PGA Championship begins and Round 2 concludes, at which point the market will resolve based on the actual leaderboard. Meanwhile, betting volume and odds movements may shift based on any pre-tournament news regarding Young's preparation or health status.

### Key factors

- Cameron Young's historical performance in major championships, particularly his recent results and major tournament finishes
- The field strength and number of competitors realistically positioned to lead after two rounds, which affects the relative probability of any single player leading
- Pre-tournament form and confidence indicators from recent PGA Tour events, which traders would use to assess his likelihood of being in contention early
- The specific 2026 PGA Championship course setup and how it aligns with Young's strengths and weaknesses as a player
- Comparative market pricing for other golfers leading after Round 2, which reveals how Young's odds position relative to peers

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar2lead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgar2lead

## License

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