# Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 17 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar3lead
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:21:02.381Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $756

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Young | 25¢ | −19pp | $617 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-young-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-t-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-came |
| Rich Beem | 3¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-rich-beem-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-the-p-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-rbee |
| Ryan Fox | 3¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-fox-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-the-pg-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-rfox |
| Scottie Scheffler | 35¢ | +28pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-ssch |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 20¢ | — | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryson-dechambeau-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-bdec |
| Rory McIlroy | 30¢ | — | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-rory-mcilroy-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-th-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-rmci |
| Jon Rahm | 39¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-rahm-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-the-pg-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-jrah |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ludvig-aberg-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-th-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-labe |
| Akshay Bhatia | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-akshay-bhatia-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-t-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-abha |
| Sam Burns | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-burns-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-the-p-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-sbur |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 25¢ | −24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-fitzpatrick-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-i-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-mfit |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tommy-fleetwood-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-tfle |
| Ryan Gerard | 34¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-gerard-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-the-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-rger |
| Chris Gotterup | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-gotterup-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-cgot |
| Si Woo Kim | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-si-woo-kim-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-the-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-wkim |
| Brooks Koepka | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooks-koepka-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-t-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-bkoe |
| Collin Morikawa | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-collin-morikawa-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-cmor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 3 |
| 2026-05-03 | 1 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Scottie Scheffler +28pp 12→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Matt Fitzpatrick −24pp 49→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Cameron Young −19pp 20→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Cameron Young +17pp 3→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Ludvig Aberg will hold the lead after 54 holes in the PGA Championship. At 27%, the probability reflects Aberg as a credible contender but not a favorite. The assessment likely factors his recent form on the PGA Tour, his track record in major championships, and the competitive field. The market suggests he faces stronger challengers—Cameron Young at 20% for the same round position, and established players like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy commanding larger shares of outright favorites. The probability could shift based on actual tournament results during Rounds 1 and 2, when leaderboard positioning becomes concrete rather than speculative. The primary catalyst is the PGA Championship itself, where only observable play through three rounds will definitively address whether Aberg leads at that checkpoint.

### Key factors

- Ludvig Aberg's 2026 PGA Tour performance and major championship history compared to peers in the field
- Cameron Young trading at 20% for the same outcome suggests Aberg at 27% may reflect marginal statistical edge or different assessor expectations
- Scottie Scheffler and other established champions trading at single-digit percentages for Round 1 lead positions, indicating market views Aberg as middle-tier contender
- The market requires Aberg to lead after Round 3 specifically—a 54-hole benchmark rather than outright victory, affecting probability calculation
- Actual tournament play during Rounds 1-2 will generate objective leaderboard data that either supports or contradicts current pre-event probability assessments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgar3lead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgar3lead

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