# Will Matthew McCarty shoot under 72.5 in Round 1

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 15 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaroundscore
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:52.773Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Matthew McCarty finish top 5?: Matthew McCarty | 10¢ | +13pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/cadillac-championship-will-matthew-mccarty-finish-kalshi-kxpgatop5-cac26-mmcc |
| Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?: Matthew McCarty | 91¢ | +20pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/cadillac-championship-will-matthew-mccarty-finish-kalshi-kxpgatop20-cac26-mmcc |
| Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?: Matthew McCarty | 8¢ | +35pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/cadillac-championship-will-matthew-mccarty-finish-kalshi-kxpgatop10-cac26-mmcc |
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 35¢ | ±0 | $300 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-acquire-any-territory-not-u-kalshi-kxusaexpandterritory-29jan21 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 27¢ | +1pp | $288 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-27apr01 |
| Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires | 59¢ | −2pp | $285 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-auston-matthewss-next-team-stays-with-kalshi-kxnextteamnhl-26amat-tor |
| St. Louis Blues | 7¢ | +2pp | $236 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-auston-matthewss-next-team-st-louis-b-kalshi-kxnextteamnhl-26amat-stl |
| Before Jan 2027 | 12¢ | −2pp | $208 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-acquire-any-territory-not-u-kalshi-kxusaexpandterritory-27jan01 |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 33¢ | −1pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-27may01 |
| Before Jan 2028 | 22¢ | +4pp | $106 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-acquire-any-territory-not-u-kalshi-kxusaexpandterritory-28jan01 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 15¢ | +1pp | $63 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-auston-matthewss-next-team-anaheim-du-kalshi-kxnextteamnhl-26amat-ana |
| Matthew Dunlap | 24¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-dunlap-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxme02d-26-mdun |
| Utah Mammoth | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-auston-matthewss-next-team-utah-mammo-kalshi-kxnextteamnhl-26amat-uta |
| Matthew McConaughey | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-mcconaughey-announce-a-run-for-an-ele-kalshi-kxrunbymidterm-26nov03-mmcc |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-26aug01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 22 |
| 2026-04-19 | 24 |
| 2026-04-26 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?: Matthew McCarty +35pp 32→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?: Matthew McCarty +20pp 42→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?: Matthew McCarty +18pp 24→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires −14pp 61→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Will Matthew McCarty finish top 5?: Matthew McCarty +13pp 24→37¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaroundscore
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgaroundscore

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.