# Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 3 contracts — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaryder
Updated: 2026-07-27T07:20:48.909Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-03

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $426

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team USA | 34¢ | ±0 | $271 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-usa-win-the-ryder-cup-team-usa-kalshi-kxpgaryder-rc27-usa |
| Team Europe | 55¢ | +1pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-europe-win-the-ryder-cup-team-europe-kalshi-kxpgaryder-rc27-eur |
| Tie | 5¢ | +1pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-usa-and-team-europe-tie-in-the-ryder-cup-kalshi-kxpgaryder-rc27-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 5 |
| 2026-07-13 | 45 |
| 2026-07-20 | 48 |
| 2026-07-27 | 34 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · Team USA −13pp 46→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Team USA +4pp 42→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Team Europe +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 32% chance that Team Europe will win the 2026 Ryder Cup golf competition. The current odds reflect historical patterns where Team Europe has been competitive but not favored against Team USA in recent tournaments. The probability would shift based on team composition announcements, player form leading into the event, and course conditions. The Ryder Cup is scheduled for late September 2026, which will serve as the definitive resolution point. Current markets show modest trading volume, suggesting limited price discovery at this time before team rosters and closer proximity to competition.

### Key factors

- Team Europe's historical win rate in the Ryder Cup since 2000 (approximately 50% including ties)
- Team USA's home-course advantage in 2026 and its performance correlation in host tournaments
- Injury status and current form of key European players as tournament approaches
- European team captain selection and player eligibility determination, typically finalized by August 2026
- Relative strength of European professional tours in generating qualifying points compared to competitive periods

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pgaryder
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pgaryder

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.