# Pharos Network FDV above ___ one day after launch — $800M

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 16 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pharos-network-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.900Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 51¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x76e7f72aef4e8533e5f3e6672f223899682d52849e022cac8592a7a4f56cb1a7 |
| $800M | 23¢ | +6pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0xbd549c211a4b156b03a37401348ffaf6b8fcce0182e3bb48f58179ccd1fc4094 |
| $1B | 26¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xe67c947bf8eeb8dffdeea19806cf266fe65f6d20f3e5bbf5135e11e544fe9b7f |
| $200M | 77¢ | −2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x9c50945d1c32e7e8db53675b9703a5d7759e37708a21af39a1deff1a1df73d5e |
| $200M | 26¢ | −1pp | $969 | polymarket | /markets/solstice-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x4b885b84d42eee16005c09c4d37822b6ed3dd7261b9e04686c08e3f71e4f66c0 |
| $1B | 13¢ | ±0 | $697 | polymarket | /markets/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x88b2827dd9bb9b3ebd4f229561a7606bd2bbdedbf3dfbb9c563e1e7dd2673747 |
| $100M | 91¢ | +1pp | $579 | polymarket | /markets/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x9bdb3d58c76c0f3c1ef757407fac0ee75110d08958cce0c2c73e3d657e5b1ee4 |
| $5B | 3¢ | ±0 | $290 | polymarket | /markets/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-5b-polymarket-0xc20be6636f316125da44ca53f6631cc00086e9fba8e1ad8d9012ae20ee7006a8 |
| $100M | 60¢ | −1pp | $129 | polymarket | /markets/solstice-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x42ddf5ef540070c0c7a44011d7b66d252edb2162d68a72d9dd429d5b93c6736b |
| $2B | 9¢ | −1pp | $111 | polymarket | /markets/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-2b-polymarket-0xb8a8833f60836f1a4860727dfebed0cb0fc59a6f9cd22ec840a2e7f6a7dbb2a3 |
| $50M | 93¢ | +1pp | $79 | polymarket | /markets/solstice-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xbd55722dfa97cf72e6853a23e96e950578324c2cc95b86b1024358792224efa0 |
| $50M | 93¢ | +1pp | $48 | polymarket | /markets/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xe4565b7036d214d87f03d82ed44b6e0db1b05c972d358b22e78aa9b68da1850a |
| $1B | 19¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/metamask-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xb0dafd2efe994270384d6265f1c62dbfe10880bba15dfda68974898617b5cee8 |
| $500M | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x7fd2f50352ef2c9e7b462a46b893792d7a6bf510bf0bc2e1f07f85b1ea1e8ca8 |
| $800M | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/grvt-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0x49a713a5ce20c7252072fdcfe86e2869dcefe06c61bbd97df5842b58833c279f |
| $100M | 77¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x9027a12cbbf78e9bff760402ab106732fa5a4af2002e4f48e5cc406ac1447800 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 39 |
| 2026-04-25 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-08 | 54 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $100M −11pp 70→59¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $500M +7pp 44→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $800M +6pp 18→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $200M +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $100M +4pp 69→73¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pharos-network-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pharos-network-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.