# Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 20 days

> Above 15 days leads at 39%, runner-up 18% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pjmemergency
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:21:00.277Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 15 days at 39%
- Runner-up: Above 20 days at 18%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 days | 39¢ | +4pp | $69 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-calendar-days-on-which-an-rto-w-kalshi-kxpjmemergency-26dec31-t15 |
| Above 20 days | 18¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-calendar-days-on-which-an-rto-w-kalshi-kxpjmemergency-26dec31-t20 |
| Above 25 days | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-calendar-days-on-which-an-rto-w-kalshi-kxpjmemergency-26dec31-t25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 15 days | Above 20 days | Above 25 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | 24 | 4 | 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | 27 | 9 | 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | 31 | 8 | 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | 30 | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | 35 | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 39 | 19 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — | 18 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Above 20 days +11pp 8→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 15 days +5pp 30→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 15 days +4pp 35→39¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents whether the PJM power grid will experience 20 or more calendar days in 2026 when a NERC Emergency Alert Level 1 (capacity emergency) is in effect—a sign of severe electricity supply stress. The 36% probability reflects that while grid emergencies have become more frequent due to aging infrastructure and rising demand, reaching 20+ days would be unusually severe. The current reading depends on weather patterns (extreme heat drives demand), generation availability (retirements and maintenance outages), and demand growth across the region. Since we are already at mid-August, the count depends on whether remaining 2026 months—particularly September heat season and potential winter stress—trigger emergency conditions. The final resolution comes on January 1, 2027, when all 2026 calendar days are known.

### Key factors

- Heat-driven demand peaks in September-October 2026 will be the primary test; any major heatwaves with simultaneous generation outages increase emergency day counts
- Recent generation retirements in PJM (coal plant closures) have tightened the margin between supply and peak demand, raising baseline emergency frequency
- Winter 2026-27 represents the second critical window; extreme cold plus forced outages or fuel supply issues could trigger additional emergency alerts
- Historical context shows 20+ emergency days in a single year would match or exceed recent multi-year peaks, indicating markets price this as materially above baseline
- The threshold climbs from 10 to 15 to 20+ days with declining probability (94% → 63% → 36%), suggesting markets see a concentration of risk in moderate rather than extreme outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pjmemergency
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pjmemergency

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.