# Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 72% across 6 contracts — refreshed 21 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/platnerdropout
Updated: 2026-07-09T00:20:50.153Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Probability: 72% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3.7M

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 9, 2026 | 40¢ | +16pp | $1.4M | kalshi | /markets/will-drop-out-of-the-2026-united-states-senate-ele-kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26-jul9 |
| Before Jul 14, 2026 | 92¢ | +3pp | $1.3M | kalshi | /markets/will-graham-platner-drop-out-of-the-2026-united-st-kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26 |
| Before Jul 10, 2026 | 64¢ | +9pp | $455K | kalshi | /markets/will-drop-out-of-the-2026-united-states-senate-ele-kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26-jul10 |
| Before Jul 11, 2026 | 73¢ | +4pp | $350K | kalshi | /markets/will-drop-out-of-the-2026-united-states-senate-ele-kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26-jul11 |
| Before Jul 13, 2026 | 85¢ | +3pp | $109K | kalshi | /markets/will-drop-out-of-the-2026-united-states-senate-ele-kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26-jul13 |
| Before Jul 12, 2026 | 80¢ | +6pp | $100K | kalshi | /markets/will-drop-out-of-the-2026-united-states-senate-ele-kalshi-kxplatnerdropout-26-jul12 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 8 |
| 2026-06-25 | 2 |
| 2026-06-29 | 1 |
| 2026-07-09 | 82 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Before Jul 14, 2026 +53pp 39→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-06 · Before Jul 14, 2026 +36pp 3→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Before Jul 9, 2026 −21pp 65→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Before Jul 9, 2026 +16pp 44→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Before Jul 10, 2026 +9pp 65→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 57% chance that Graham Platner, a candidate in Maine's 2026 Senate election, will withdraw from the race before July 9, 2026—approximately 48 hours from now. The high probability reflects near-term resolution, with contract prices showing elevated expectations of withdrawal on very specific dates. Factors driving this include recent campaign developments, polling performance, or candidate circumstances that have triggered speculation about an imminent exit. The market appears to price in substantial uncertainty compressed into days rather than weeks, suggesting either recent news or an anticipated announcement. The resolution hinges on whether Platner formally announces a dropout or files withdrawal paperwork before the July 9 deadline. After July 9, the market will simply resolve to either yes or no based on documented withdrawal status, eliminating the current speculation around the precise timing of his decision.

### Key factors

- Market prices for earlier deadlines (72¢ for Jul 9) suggest meaningful probability of withdrawal within 48 hours rather than speculation about eventual exit
- Contract pricing shows progressive increases for later deadlines (91¢ for Jul 14), indicating traders expect clarity by mid-July if not immediately
- High trading volume in the Jul 14 contract ($2.1M in 24h) indicates significant market attention to this specific candidate race
- If no withdrawal occurs by July 9, the market will immediately reprice based on new timeframe expectations
- Platner's current campaign status, recent statements, and any disclosed health, family, or personal circumstances directly determine whether withdrawal is imminent or speculative

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/platnerdropout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=platnerdropout
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.