# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/platnerofficialwithdraw-27
Updated: 2026-07-11T19:20:51.140Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 14, 2026 at 96%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 13, 2026 at 16%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $116K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 14, 2026 | 96¢ | +4pp | $59K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxplatnerofficialwithdraw-27-26jul14 |
| Before Jul 13, 2026 | 16¢ | +9pp | $23K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxplatnerofficialwithdraw-27-26jul13 |
| Before Jul 12, 2026 | 12¢ | −5pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxplatnerofficialwithdraw-27-26jul12 |
| Before Jul 11, 2026 | 3¢ | −4pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxplatnerofficialwithdraw-27-26jul11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 14, 2026 | Before Jul 13, 2026 | Before Jul 12, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 92 | 19 | 24 |
| 2026-07-10 | 96 | 28 | 19 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · Before Jul 13, 2026 +9pp 19→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Before Jul 12, 2026 −5pp 24→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Before Jul 14, 2026 +4pp 92→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Before Jul 11, 2026 −4pp 18→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 94% probability that Graham Platner's withdrawal from the Maine Senate race will be officially reported before July 14, 2026. This high probability reflects strong conviction that an announcement is imminent, with the deadline just days away. The market distinguishes between earlier withdrawal dates—assigning just 21% probability to withdrawal by July 11 and 25% by July 12—suggesting traders expect the announcement around July 13 or early July 14. Key factors likely driving this view include recent candidate statements, filing deadlines, or reported negotiations within Maine political circles. The primary uncertainty is the exact timing of any potential announcement rather than whether withdrawal occurs at all. Conviction this strong typically reflects either material private information circulating among traders or extraordinary public developments making withdrawal nearly certain.

### Key factors

- The 94% probability for before July 14 versus only 21% for before July 11 indicates traders expect withdrawal announcement between July 12-14 rather than today or tomorrow
- 24-hour trading volume concentration ($23,123 on the July 14 contract) suggests recent significant information flow or consensus shift among market participants
- Multi-contract structure allows precise dating expectations; the gradient from 21% to 94% across 4-day window is steeper than normal candidate uncertainty patterns
- July 14 represents a natural deadline (likely campaign filing or registration cutoff) that would explain the specific probability cliff at that date
- Market pricing this high typically emerges from candidate communications, party coordination announcements, or filed legal documents rather than pure speculation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/platnerofficialwithdraw-27
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=platnerofficialwithdraw-27
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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