# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic State Committee directly selects Graham Platner's replacement before Aug 1, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/platnerreplace
Updated: 2026-07-28T13:20:52.203Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-01

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State committee | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxplatnerreplace-26-comm |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 10 |
| 2026-07-08 | 3 |
| 2026-07-21 | 2 |
| 2026-07-24 | 4 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market prices the likelihood that Maine Democrats will replace Senate nominee Graham Platner through a statewide caucus process before August 1, 2026. The 68% probability reflects market expectations that if a replacement occurs, it will happen via caucus rather than direct state committee selection (8%), special convention (14%), or other mechanisms (7%). The leading outcome suggests traders view caucuses as the Democrats' preferred procedural path, should party leadership decide to change nominees. Key factors influencing this assessment include Maine Democratic Party bylaws governing nominee replacement, the compressed timeline before August 1st, and recent reporting on intra-party deliberations about Platner's candidacy. Traders are essentially forecasting both that replacement will occur and that the method will be statewide caucuses. Movement would likely follow official party statements clarifying succession procedures or reporting indicating imminent action.

### Key factors

- Maine Democratic Party bylaws explicitly detail the procedures and pathways available for nominee replacement, determining which methods are legally viable before August 1
- Market prices across five competing outcomes sum to approximately 102¢, indicating traders assign roughly 2% probability to none of these specific methods occurring
- The statewide caucus outcome (68¢) commands roughly 8.5x greater probability than direct state committee selection (8¢), suggesting procedural preference or perceived logistics
- Historical precedent and party communications regarding nominee changes in Maine would inform trader expectations about the likeliest procedural path
- Calendar dynamics: August 1 deadline creates specific operational constraints on which methods can feasibly conclude

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/platnerreplace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=platnerreplace
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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