# Will Denver Outlaws win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 8 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pll
Updated: 2026-05-28T23:20:10.005Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $111

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Outlaws | 15¢ | −1pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-outlaws-win-the-2026-premier-lacrosse-kalshi-kxpll-26-den |
| Maryland Whipsnakes | 10¢ | +3pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-maryland-whipsnakes-win-the-2026-premier-lacr-kalshi-kxpll-26-mdw |
| Philadelphia Waterdogs | 14¢ | −1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-waterdogs-win-the-2026-premier-l-kalshi-kxpll-26-phi |
| Boston Cannons | 11¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-cannons-win-the-2026-premier-lacrosse-kalshi-kxpll-26-bos |
| California Redwoods | 14¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-california-redwoods-win-the-2026-premier-lacr-kalshi-kxpll-26-cal |
| Carolina Chaos | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-chaos-win-the-2026-premier-lacrosse-kalshi-kxpll-26-car |
| New York Atlas | 21¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-atlas-win-the-2026-premier-lacrosse-kalshi-kxpll-26-nya |
| Utah Archers | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-archers-win-the-2026-premier-lacrosse-le-kalshi-kxpll-26-uta |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 10 |
| 2026-05-14 | 8 |
| 2026-05-21 | 9 |
| 2026-05-27 | 16 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · New York Atlas −8pp 15→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · New York Atlas +7pp 14→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Carolina Chaos +5pp 9→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · California Redwoods +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Carolina Chaos −4pp 9→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Denver Outlaws have a 13% implied probability of winning the 2026 PLL Championship, meaning the market assigns them roughly 1-in-8 odds. This places them fourth among tracked teams, behind Philadelphia Waterdogs (16%), New York Atlas (18%), and significantly ahead of Utah Archers (4%). The Outlaws' positioning likely reflects their roster strength and historical performance relative to competitors, though the championship outcome depends heavily on regular-season results through the summer, playoff seeding, and match-up dynamics in August's playoff tournament. The low trading volume on this contract ($0 in 24 hours) suggests limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Final resolution occurs at the end of the 2026 PLL season when the championship winner is determined.

### Key factors

- Denver's regular-season win-loss record and playoff seeding position, which directly determine tournament matchups and path to the championship
- Head-to-head performance against Philadelphia (16% odds) and New York (18% odds) in regular-season contests, signaling relative team strength
- Injury status of key Outlaws players through the season, particularly defenders and the starting goaltender, affecting roster availability for playoffs
- The complete PLL playoff bracket structure and tournament format, which determines whether Denver faces higher-seeded favorites early or has a favorable path
- Comparative odds movement for other PLL teams, indicating whether market confidence is shifting toward or away from Denver relative to the field

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pll
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pll

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.