# Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 20.8 million total membership in Q1 2026

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 20.8 million. Last odds frozen 18 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/plnt
Updated: 2026-05-08T12:50:22.449Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-06-06

## Headline

- Leader: Above 21.2 million at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 21 million at 88%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K
- Resolved: Above 20.8 million

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 21.2 million | 92¢ | +5pp | $825 | kalshi | /markets/will-planet-fitness-inc-report-above-212-million-t-kalshi-kxplnt-26maymem-21200000.0 |
| Above 21 million | 88¢ | +3pp | $903 | kalshi | /markets/will-planet-fitness-inc-report-above-21-million-to-kalshi-kxplnt-26maymem-21000000.0 |
| Above 21.6 million | 86¢ | −21pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-planet-fitness-inc-report-above-216-million-t-kalshi-kxplnt-26maymem-21600000.0 |
| Above 20.8 million | 10¢ | −32pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-planet-fitness-inc-report-above-208-million-t-kalshi-kxplnt-26maymem-20800000.0 |
| Above 21.8 million | 4¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-planet-fitness-inc-report-above-218-million-t-kalshi-kxplnt-26maymem-21800000.0 |
| Above 22 million | 4¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-planet-fitness-inc-report-above-22-million-to-kalshi-kxplnt-26maymem-22000000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 21.2 million | Above 21 million | Above 21.6 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | 80 | 85 | 45 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 46 |
| 2026-04-26 | 85 | 89 | 46 |
| 2026-04-29 | 86 | — | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 92 | 42 |
| 2026-05-07 | 94 | 95 | 19 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Above 20.8 million −32pp 99→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 21.6 million −21pp 40→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 20.8 million +7pp 92→99¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 21.2 million +5pp 89→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 21.8 million −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 93% probability that Planet Fitness will report total membership above 20.8 million when it releases Q1 2026 results, based on trading activity on Kalshi. The high confidence reflects the company's historical membership trajectory and recent growth patterns, though the exact threshold of 20.8 million creates a narrow band where outcomes can shift. Resolution depends on Planet Fitness's earnings announcement, scheduled for mid-May 2026, which will provide the official membership count. Key drivers include membership retention rates during economic cycles, pricing adjustments implemented in late 2025, and competitive expansion by other fitness chains. The small gap between the leading contract (93%) and runner-up (92%) suggests traders view the outcome as highly likely but not certain, with sensitivity to any guidance changes or membership churn announcements preceding the official report.

### Key factors

- Planet Fitness's reported membership trend through late 2024 and early 2025, which would establish the baseline trajectory for Q1 2026
- Churn rates and net member additions during Q1 2026, influenced by seasonality and economic conditions
- Any interim guidance or pre-earnings commentary the company provided about membership expectations
- Competitive pressures from other budget fitness chains and their reported membership growth during the same period
- The specific threshold of 20.8 million versus historical growth rates—determining whether this represents a continuation of trends or a material acceleration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/plnt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=plnt

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.