# Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026

> Above 1040 leads at 96%, runner-up 92% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pltr
Updated: 2026-07-26T06:20:50.920Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-02

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1040 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 1050 at 92%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1040 | 96¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1040-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-p1040 |
| Above 1050 | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1050-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-p1050 |
| Above 1060 | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1060-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-p1060 |
| Above 1065 | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1065-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-1065 |
| Above 1070 | 40¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1070-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-p1070 |
| Above 1075 | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1075-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-1075 |
| Above 1080 | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1080-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-p1080 |
| Above 1090 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1090-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-p1090 |
| Above 1100 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1100-t-kalshi-kxpltr-26augcust-p1100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1040 | Above 1050 | Above 1060 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 86 | 70 | 44 |
| 2026-07-10 | 96 | 95 | 82 |
| 2026-07-12 | — | 91 | 80 |
| 2026-07-18 | — | 92 | 81 |
| 2026-07-25 | — | 92 | 81 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This prediction indicates an expectation that Palantir will report at least 1,020 customers when it releases Q1 2026 results. The 96% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome based on recent customer growth trends. Palantir has demonstrated consistent customer acquisition momentum, particularly in government and commercial sectors. The key driver supporting this level is the company's recent quarterly reports showing steady customer additions. A downside scenario would require a significant slowdown in sales conversion or customer expansion that hasn't been reflected in recent disclosures. The resolution occurs when Palantir publishes its official Q1 2026 earnings report, which typically happens in May or early June 2026. Market participants are pricing in continued execution rather than exceptional growth, suggesting the bar of 1,020 customers is viewed as achievable given recent performance trends.

### Key factors

- Palantir's most recent quarterly customer count and historical growth rate trajectory
- Customer acquisition velocity in government contracts versus commercial expansion efforts
- Churn or customer retention rates that would offset new additions
- Timing and visibility of large commercial or government deals that contribute to annual customer growth
- Difference between reported customer count (how Palantir defines a customer) versus actual bookings or AUM growth

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pltr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pltr

## License

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