# Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1100 total customer count in 2026

> Above 1100 leads at 92%, runner-up 90% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pltra
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.362Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1100 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 1120 at 90%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1100 | 92¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1100-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1100 |
| Above 1120 | 90¢ | +47pp | $212 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1120-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1120 |
| Above 1140 | 82¢ | −1pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1140-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1140 |
| Above 1160 | 73¢ | +3pp | $315 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1160-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1160 |
| Above 1180 | 61¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1180-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1180 |
| Above 1200 | 45¢ | −3pp | $418 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1200-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1200 |
| Above 1220 | 30¢ | +1pp | $306 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1220-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1220 |
| Above 1240 | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1240-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1240 |
| Above 1260 | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1260-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1260 |
| Above 1280 | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1280-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1280 |
| Above 1300 | 5¢ | −1pp | $217 | kalshi | /markets/will-palantir-technologies-inc-report-above-1300-t-kalshi-kxpltra-28jancust-1300 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1100 | Above 1120 | Above 1140 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 65 | 43 | 39 |
| 2026-06-24 | 95 | 90 | 85 |
| 2026-06-25 | 88 | — | 84 |
| 2026-06-26 | 89 | — | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 1120 +47pp 43→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 1140 +46pp 39→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 1100 +30pp 65→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 1160 +21pp 54→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 1180 +19pp 44→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Palantir Technologies is currently priced to have above 1,100 total customers by the end of 2026 with 96% confidence, reflecting strong market expectations for customer growth. The company's two main operating segments—government and commercial—have different growth trajectories, with commercial adoption historically accelerating but from a smaller base. Factors supporting this probability include Palantir's established government relationships, recent commercial platform investments, and multi-year customer acquisition patterns. The key uncertainty is whether commercial customer onboarding sustains current momentum or faces integration headwinds. Resolution will come when Palantir reports 2026 full-year results, typically in early 2027, officially disclosing total customer count. The probability curve shows meaningful differentiation between 1,100 and 1,240 customers (from 96¢ to 17¢), indicating substantive disagreement about upside scenarios despite general confidence in the baseline threshold.

### Key factors

- Palantir reported approximately 558 government customers and 151 commercial customers as of late 2024; reaching 1,100+ requires cumulative growth of 290+ net new customers across both segments over 18 months
- Commercial customer adds have accelerated in recent quarters but remain smaller than government base; the market is pricing moderate attrition against ongoing new customer wins
- Government customer growth has historically been steady but not exponential; most gains would need to come from commercial segment expansion, which carries higher execution risk
- Kalshi contracts show sharp probability drops at higher thresholds (96% for 1,100 vs 87% for 1,120), suggesting concentrated uncertainty in a narrow band rather than binary risk
- 2026 year-end earnings disclosure in early 2027 will provide definitive customer count, making this resolvable on a specific near-term date

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pltra
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pltra

## License

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