# Portland Thorns FC vs. San Diego Wave FC - More Markets

> 85+ wins leads at 25%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:48.767Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Leader: 85+ wins at 25%
- Runner-up: 90+ wins at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85+ wins | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t85 |
| 90+ wins | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t90 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 85+ wins | 90+ wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 61 | 30 |
| 2026-06-12 | 27 | 9 |
| 2026-06-19 | 21 | 8 |
| 2026-06-25 | 31 | 8 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · 85+ wins +4pp 24→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 85+ wins +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 19% probability reflects the likelihood that San Diego wins at least 85 games in the 2026 MLB season. The significant 20-percentage-point gap between prediction markets suggests disagreement about San Diego's roster strength and competitive positioning. Key drivers include the team's recent offseason moves, injury status of core players, and early-season performance trends. The main uncertainty will resolve through the regular season as actual win-loss records accumulate; by mid-September, the market would converge toward certainty based on whether San Diego is tracking toward 85 wins. Current pricing reflects mixed assessments of the Padres' 2026 competitiveness relative to NL West rivals.

### Key factors

- San Diego's opening-day roster composition and payroll allocation versus division competitors like the Dodgers and Giants
- Kalshi showing 57¢ on 85+ wins suggests internal market confidence significantly higher than the 19% aggregate, indicating possible liquidity or timing differences
- Early 2026 season win-loss record through May and June will provide concrete data to either confirm or invalidate the 85-win projection
- Injury status of San Diego's key position players and starting pitchers, which directly impacts win probability over a 162-game season
- The 20-percentage-point venue gap indicates fundamental disagreement on assessment methodology or contract design between Kalshi and Polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets

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