# Portland Thorns FC vs. San Diego Wave FC

> 85+ wins leads at 25%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:48.828Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Leader: 85+ wins at 25%
- Runner-up: 90+ wins at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85+ wins | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t85 |
| 90+ wins | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t90 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 85+ wins | 90+ wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 61 | 30 |
| 2026-06-12 | 27 | 9 |
| 2026-06-19 | 21 | 8 |
| 2026-06-25 | 31 | 8 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · 85+ wins +4pp 24→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 85+ wins +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 19% probability reflects the likelihood that San Diego wins at least 85 games in the 2026 season, based on three linked contracts with minimal recent trading activity. This threshold sits between typical regular season win totals for mid-tier playoff contenders and rebuilding teams. The probability is primarily driven by San Diego's current roster composition and injury status, with upward pressure if the team performs better than preseason expectations and downward pressure if early-season results fall short. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be performance through the first 50-60 games of the season, which typically establishes a team's competitive trajectory and win-pace trajectory. Secondary contracts priced at 20¢ (85+ wins) and 7¢ (90+ wins) suggest the market distinguishes between different win thresholds but assigns notably lower confidence to sustained excellence.

### Key factors

- San Diego's projected win total based on preseason power ratings and roster evaluation relative to the 85-game threshold
- Early season win-loss record through June-July 2026, which determines whether the team is tracking toward or away from 85 wins at the current pace
- Health and performance of key position players, particularly starting rotation and primary offensive contributors
- Direct competition within the NL West; divisional race dynamics affect playoff positioning and late-season urgency that influences final win total
- The 20¢ contract price for 85+ wins versus the 19% headline price suggests significant uncertainty between win-total tiers

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc

## License

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