# Portugal vs. DR Congo

> Portugal leads at 77%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portugal-vs-dr-congo
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.727Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Portugal at 77%
- Runner-up: Draw (Portugal vs. DR Congo) at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $86

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 77¢ | +2pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/portugal-vs-dr-congo-portugal-polymarket-0xcaaa1338d38b5c614196c9a926dd84babc3984442f2ec9b937a16284a199ec3a |
| Draw (Portugal vs. DR Congo) | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/portugal-vs-dr-congo-draw-portugal-vs-dr-congo-polymarket-0xff1afdef47475128b85467bd1a3a4a3182da0c27409d81c2dc6c7d55b5467dad |
| DR Congo | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/portugal-vs-dr-congo-dr-congo-polymarket-0x26af99aaa2182c11f3f02ea8e9ee5527dd2d0f9680c73ffbd7bd0237cc64d5f2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Portugal | Draw (Portugal vs. DR Congo) | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 17 | 11 |
| 2026-05-01 | 76 | 16 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 77 | 15 | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 76 | 15 | 9 |
| 2026-05-09 | 77 | 17 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Portugal is favored to win an upcoming match against DR Congo, with traders pricing Portugal at 76% likelihood of victory. The wide gap between Portugal (76¢) and DR Congo (9¢) suggests confidence in Portugal's competitive advantage, likely driven by differences in FIFA ranking, recent form, or squad quality. The very low trading volume on the DR Congo contract ($5 in 24 hours) indicates limited market conviction overall, leaving room for probability shifts if new information emerges about team lineups, injuries, or tactical changes. The outcome will be determined when the match is played; no specific date or data release is visible from current contract activity.

### Key factors

- Portugal trades at 76% while DR Congo trades at 9%, creating a 67-point spread indicating substantial confidence in Portugal's superiority
- Trading volume concentration on the Portugal contract ($378 in 24h volume) versus DR Congo contract ($5) shows asymmetric market interest and potentially thin liquidity on the underdog
- The existence of multiple unrelated contracts (Colombia vs. DR Congo, DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan, Portugal vs. Uzbekistan) suggests this may be part of a multi-leg tournament or competition structure with distinct match outcomes
- DR Congo's contract price of 41¢ against Uzbekistan in a separate matchup provides a reference point for DR Congo's perceived strength relative to other opponents
- No visible contract pricing history or time-series data in the current snapshot limits ability to assess whether 76% represents a stable consensus or a recent shift in market sentiment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portugal-vs-dr-congo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=portugal-vs-dr-congo

## License

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