# Portugal vs. Uzbekistan

> Portugal leads at 78%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portugal-vs-uzbekistan
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.453Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Portugal at 78%
- Runner-up: Draw (Portugal vs. Uzbekistan) at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/portugal-vs-uzbekistan-portugal-polymarket-0x7fb8010a0cdc4ac4f7e93fb7a532731fbb81f951dd451f2402648eaa3cf285e1 |
| Draw (Portugal vs. Uzbekistan) | 16¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/portugal-vs-uzbekistan-draw-portugal-vs-uzbekistan-polymarket-0x3dac1c6e41591af519fee14c8b7e47022825b19e04e643b115ca407c6a722617 |
| Uzbekistan | 9¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/portugal-vs-uzbekistan-uzbekistan-polymarket-0x887f26cf6ab07f7aebdf203280c1f1cddbe1cd494f420316b94a2647238f48d1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Portugal | Draw (Portugal vs. Uzbekistan) | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 74 | — | 17 |
| 2026-05-01 | 75 | 20 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 74 | 19 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 74 | 18 | 19 |
| 2026-05-06 | 74 | 22 | 16 |
| 2026-05-07 | 77 | 20 | 15 |
| 2026-05-08 | 78 | — | 10 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Uzbekistan −5pp 15→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Portugal vs. Uzbekistan) +4pp 18→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Uzbekistan +4pp 15→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Portugal +3pp 74→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Uzbekistan −3pp 19→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that Portugal will finish ahead of Uzbekistan in their competition. At 75%, the market is pricing Portugal as a clear favorite, though not overwhelming. The current assessment likely reflects Portugal's stronger recent form and higher FIFA ranking compared to Uzbekistan, balanced against Uzbekistan's home advantage or recent competitive results. The main factors supporting the higher probability are Portugal's established strength in international competition, while Uzbekistan's chances depend on their ability to exploit home conditions or exploit defensive vulnerabilities. The probability will shift significantly based on team lineups, injury reports, and any recent performance data emerging before the match. Market liquidity is concentrated in the Portugal contracts, suggesting high confidence in that outcome compared to alternatives.

### Key factors

- Portugal holds a 76¢ contract price on Polymarket compared to 12¢ for Uzbekistan in direct matchup markets, indicating consistent directional confidence
- Trading volume concentrates almost entirely on Portugal vs. DR Congo ($378 24h), while Uzbekistan contracts show minimal volume, suggesting lower conviction or uncertainty in peripheral matchups
- The 75% probability carries a 17% runner-up alternative, indicating the market retains material doubt rather than viewing Portugal as dominant
- Runner-up contract at 41¢ (DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan) suggests market uncertainty about Uzbekistan's competitive standing across multiple potential pairings
- Minimal trading activity on Uzbekistan contracts ($0 volume) could indicate either strong consensus or insufficient liquidity to attract deeper analysis

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/portugal-vs-uzbekistan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=portugal-vs-uzbekistan

## License

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