# What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony

> Inflation leads at 76%, runner-up 67% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/powellmention
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.799Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Leader: Inflation at 76%
- Runner-up: Political / Politics at 67%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 76¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-infl |
| Political / Politics | 67¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-poli |
| Dual Mandate | 65¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-dual |
| Pandemic | 59¢ | −2pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-pand |
| President | 52¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-pres |
| Good Evening | 34¢ | +2pp | $77 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-good |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-ai |
| Recession | 26¢ | — | $35 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-rece |
| Kevin / Warsh | 26¢ | −5pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-kevi |
| Stock Market | 25¢ | — | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-stoc |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-oil |
| Uncertainty | 18¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-unce |
| Iran / Iranian | 14¢ | +1pp | $192 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-iran |
| Trump | 13¢ | −1pp | $62 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-trum |
| Productivity | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-prod |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | 7¢ | — | $26 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-cryp |
| Tariff | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jerome-powell-say-during-acceptance-rema-kalshi-kxpowellmention-26may31-tari |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Inflation | Political / Politics | Dual Mandate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 64 | 64 | 55 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | — | 60 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Kevin / Warsh −5pp 33→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Dual Mandate +5pp 55→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that Jerome Powell will mention inflation during his acceptance remarks at the Kennedy Profile in Courage Award ceremony. The 64% leading contract reflects market participants' assessment that Powell will address inflation in his speech, based on its relevance to his tenure and recent economic conditions. The main driver of this probability is the nature of Powell's role as Federal Reserve Chair during a period of significant inflation management, making it a natural topic for acceptance remarks. Market uncertainty around the final content of Powell's speech—which depends on his specific focus and framing—represents the counterbalancing factor. The speech is scheduled for May 31, 2026, providing the resolution event. Volume concentration in the "President" contract (59¢, $265) suggests market focus on formal framing, while the "Recession" and "Crypto" contracts at lower prices indicate skepticism about more speculative topics appearing in the remarks.

### Key factors

- Powell's Federal Reserve tenure has been defined substantially by inflation management from 2021-2026, making it a natural reference point in acceptance remarks
- The Kennedy Profile in Courage Award ceremony typically features formal, institutional remarks focused on leadership challenges and policy decisions rather than technical specifics
- The "Inflation" contract at 64% trades notably higher than "Recession" (27¢) and "Crypto" (7¢), suggesting the market sees inflation as more central to Powell's likely narrative than other economic topics
- Resolution depends entirely on the exact text of Powell's May 31 remarks; market-maker pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about his chosen emphasis
- High volume in the "President" contract indicates market focus on formality level and tone, which may correlate with whether Powell discusses substantive policy topics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/powellmention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=powellmention
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.